Forecasting The Mobile Terminal Technology With The TFDEA Method

With the accelerating pace of technological innovation, the uncertainty oftechnology development is also increasing, so it is important to estimate the trend oftechnology development through scientific and reasonable technology foresight. Oneof the recent foresight methods is TFDEA, which is based on data envelopmentanalysis and is theoretically an effective quantitative approach for technologyforecasting. However, the application and research of TFDEA are relatively modest.In this paper, theory, models and empirical analysis was integrated. Firstly, carryout a systematic study of the theories and methods at home and abroad on technologyforesight. According to the current status in this area, summarize up the limitations oftechnology foresight commonly used. Secondly, propose the method of technologyforecasting based on TFDEA methods and focus on the TFDEA basic idea, putforward the feasibility idea and framework of the study of technology forecastingbased on TFDEA method. Then, the TFDEA method is applied to the mobile terminaltechnology foresight. Evaluate and predict the mobile terminal technology through theestablishment of the model used TFDEA method. Verify quantitatively theeffectiveness of the methods based on the performance of the developmental trends ofmobile terminal technology. Finally, according to the data characteristics of themobile terminal technology indicators, choose the method that combined principalcomponent analysis and time series analysis method re-predict the future trends of themobile terminal technology. This results are compared with that used TFDEA method,thus proving the advantages of the TFDEA method.The contribution of this paper is to elaborate technology foresight theory based onTFDEA method, which is more systematic and more complete study in the domesticstudy of technology foresight. In addition, prove the validity of the method throughempirical research, and show the effectiveness of the method by the comparing study.The results of this study show that technology foresight method based on TFDEA isa non-parametric estimation methods which estimates the production frontier based ona set of inputed/outputed observations. It is conducive to traditional forecastingmethods, and it has the stronger function for multi-than the usual method of input/ output system.