Jinan City Population Carrying Capacity

With the speeding up of industrialization and urbanization, massive population gathertowards cities, urban population continues to grow, which leads to many problems anddifficulties appeared in the process of its development, the population carrying capacity isan important measurable indicator of urban sustainable development, it determines the scaleand development direction of the city to a certain extent. As the provincial capital ofShandong province, Jinan has enjoyed rapid economic and social development in recentyears, which result in an increasing number of urban population and a series of problemssuch as the shortage of resource, environmental pollution, these problems are adverse to thesustainable development of Jinan. Therefore, based on the positioning of the city function,making a study on systematic population carrying capacity of Jinan and obtaining optimumpopulation will have great practical significance. This paper takes Jinan city as the object ofstudy, through building an evaluation index system of Jinan’s population carrying capacityfrom the view of multi-objective decision making, Then evaluates the population carryingcapacity using possible-satisfiablity method, and according to the current developmentsituation of Jinan to find the main factors influencing the population carrying capacity,obeys the rules of scientificity, dynamic and operability. The paper provide morereasonable principles for decision-making in order to promote the population carryingcapacity of Jinan, also provide a new idea and method of study on population carryingcapacity for Jinan.The paper mainly includes the following four aspects.Part one is basic theories about population carrying capacity. In this part, the origin anddevelopment of carrying capacity are explained, then the concept of carrying capacity ofurban population is defined, following the related theory basis such as the resources scarcitytheory, the sustainable development theory, the wooden barrel theory, the appropriatedemographic theory, the population migration theory are illustrated.Part two is the basic condition of development in Jinan. In this part, the author presentsthe condition of the natural resource and ecological environment, the development ofeconomic and social development, the population situation of Jinan, which provide thereality basis and related data to support the study and lay the foundation for further study.Part three is the evaluation of Jinan population carrying capacity, which is the core ofthe paper. In this part, firstly by using frequency statistics, combining with the currentdevelopment situation of Jinan, the evaluation index system of Jinan population carryingcapacity is constructed from aspects of natural resources, ecological environment, economicdevelopment and infrastructure construction, and then by adopting possible-satisfiablitymethod to evaluate Jinan population carrying capacity at present and in2020, according tothe calculation results it analyzes the factors influencing carrying capacity of population inJinan, and provides the basis for the following countermeasures part.Part four is the suggestions for promoting Jinan population carrying capacity. Based onthe analysis of the influencing factors previously, several suggestions for promoting Jinanpopulation carrying capacity are put forward with the consideration the current situation ofJinan and its development planning. The innovation of this paper mainly lies in two aspects as below: Firstly, this papercombines with the present development situation of Jinan, building Jinan populationcarrying capacity index system from the view multi-objective decision-making, whichprovides a new research idea and method for Jinan population carrying capacity analysistheoretically; Secondly, based on the index system builded, this paper by usingpossible-satisfiablity method, evaluates population carrying capacity in Jinan at present andin2020, and analyzes the factors influencing Jinan carrying capacity of population, thenputs forward the feasible countermeasure in order to promote population carrying capacityof Jinan.