Based On The Butterfly Mutation Danger Degree Intelligent Evaluation Research As Well As Enterprise Safe Production

Enterprise security intelligence evaluation system to various complex enterprise safety factor is classified as "the human-machine-environment-management" four aspects, and then carry out a scientific system evaluation. The first accident cause analysis, based on the safety system engineering system theory, attribution theory is the accident-causing model, and the system in the presence of dangerous point analysis, find out the connection between them, as are the four elements, so the application of butterfly catastrophe elementary transformation formula, the establishment of data model, through the normalization formula, forming" man-machine-environment-management" of production safety system and safety countermeasure analysis decision system. Using the principal components analysis method to the unsafe behavior of human factors, the unsafe state of factors, environmental unsafe factor, the defects in the management of the four factors combined, grade coefficient method and expert optimization scheme and determine the safety standard value.The establishment of four elements of the safe production guarantee system analysis model, enterprises can be divided into:the dangerous degree of ideal safe area; danger area; relatively safe area. According to its own conditions, can set a dangerous factor to judge the degree of risk, in this context, it is a relatively safe area. The enterprise according to the industry characteristics refer to a new dynamic standard value, at the same time, the government also can establish a new evaluation index, through the classification to achieve the government to the enterprise management. The thesis focuses on the research content is as follows:1) Safe dynamic normal value analysis and safety in production safeguard systems control essential factor selection;2) the mutation theory and the theory of accident causation analysis of combining;3) the establishment of safe production of security analysis model and decision model of safety countermeasures;4) Butterfly mutation and swallowtail catastrophe theory model for dynamic analysis of difference;5) safety intelligent evaluation system for real-time application.Through the application of grey modeling theory, this paper realizes the mutation theory of butterfly catastrophe model and accident causation model of combination of four factors analysis. Establishment of safety production security analysis model, to some extent, can accurately judge the state of the system, and the safety countermeasures decision model, can help enterprises choose the rectification programme, so that enterprises timely, efficient implementation of countermeasures. Safety production dynamic analysis model, which can reflect the variation of the safety situation tendency. Based on the above model, using Visual Basic programming language to develop the intelligent evaluation system, so that enterprises can quickly and easily master the current status, timely find fault, guarantee the safety of production running smoothly and prevent accidents.