The Study On The Prediction Of Water Supply And Demand In Wuwei

Wuwei City is one of the areas, which has the largest population density and least water resources amount per capita, in continental river basin of China. In recent years, shortage of water resources in Shiyang river basin has caused a series of ecological and social problems, which claimed high nationwide attention. Moreover, with economic and social development of Wuwei City and change of water resources supply-demand relationship, conflict between supply and demand and scarcity, fundamentality and rivalry of water resources became more prominent, water shortage being the key factors restricting economic and social development in the area.This paper, using the system dynamics model, predicted domestic, process and ecological water amount of supply and demand of Wuwei City. Still, we noticed unknown confounding factors in the relationship between economic development and water demand prediction. Moreover, main risk factor is determined by principle component analysis method and grey system analysis and BP neural network model are also introduced to forecast the level of water shortage, showing that imbalance between supply and demand of water resources in Wuwei City will still exist in the next10years.1. It’s predicted that there will be a water shortage of27.14million m3(1.7%) or66.98million m3(4.2%) in the cases where economy steadily or slowly, while yearly mean predictive water supply is slightly larger than demand in rapid economic development case.2. The analytic results is conformed to what’s found in practice that the main risk factors which affects the shortage of water resources in Wuwei City are agricultural water, industrial water and the total amount of the water resources, etc. This paper predicts that there will be22.54%of the shortage of water resources by2020in Wuwei City, based on grey system analysis and BP neural network theory.3. According to the prediction, total water content is lower in rapid economic developing case than the steady one, whose is lower than what’s in the slow one, the reason of which is that the faster the economy develops, the more investment in highly efficient and water-saving irrigation will be, resulting in a higher comprehensive water productivity and water saved in irrigation exceeds domestic and industrial water increment.4. In the next10years, Wuwei City will yet be in lack of water. Rapid economic development and more investment in water-saving irrigation can ease the supply-demand conflict temporarily. However, the problem may become more serious again.In order to ease the supply-demand conflict and promote sustainable development of water resources in Wuwei City, we should increase income and reduce expenditure, make overall plans and manage strictly, joint regulation and storage, overall consideration, water resources tapping and saving, comprehensive utilization, improvement of environment and protection of water resources. We should construct a water-saving and anti-polluting society and enhance the construction of insurance mechanism of optimization arrangement of water resources, supporting the sustainable social and economic development with sustainable development of water resources.