Medium And Long-term Supply And Demand Forecasts And Balance Analysis In Water Resources Of Zhangjiakou City

Water resources is the world’s biological survival of the fundamental naturalresources, as well as the most valuable strategic economic resources of human survivaland development. In water shortage areas, Sustainable use of water is of crucial importance,and the premise of social and economic development. Zhangjiakou City is an acuteshortage of water areas, along with the social and economic development has becomeincreasingly strong demand for water resources, the increasingly prominent contradictionbetween supply and demand, to carry out the Zhangjiakou water prediction and long-termsupply and demand balance analysis, and optimize configuration of water resources whichmakes the limited water for the maximum of benefit and efficiency have become theinevitable choice of sustainable economic and social development. In this thesis, waterlong-term projections on supply and demand balance analysis of Zhangjiakou has beencarried on.In this thesis, firstly analyzed the surface water, groundwater, and statistics for totalwater resources using of Zhangjiakou. Through social and economic indicators survey andwater suppling and using survey for nearly a decade, and water using analysis in presentyear, and water supply and demand development trend analysis, and water resourcesexploitation and using analysis and so on, reveals the water resources exploitation andusing existent problem and contradiction between supply and requirement, which affordsbasic data for the medium and long term planning of limited water resources inZhangjiakou City.To carry out the water supply and demand forecasts and balance analysis medium andlong-term in Zhangjiakou City, water demand prediction is very important basic work inthe process. Conducting water demand forecasting, this thesis makes a relativelycomprehensive analysis of the water demand forecasting method, including the commonlyused method: development index and water quota method, general trend analysis,mechanism of forecasting methods, the per capita water demand; and water demandforecasting based on statistical methods: structural analysis method, system analysismethod and time series method. At the same time, considering the special area ofZhangjiakou City, finally choosing the method of combining the traditional quota and thegrey prediction GM (1,1) predict the water quota of various industries under strengthenwater-saving conditions, calculated the water demand of the planning level years.Combined with the water planning in the next twenty years of Zhangjiakou City, makewater allocation and forecast the future water supply of the various administrative region,at the same time expand medium and long-term water supply and demand balance analysisand optimal allocation, and in view of the special geographical environment carry out thefurther balance of supply and demand analysis on the key areas of Zhangjiakou City.Finally, in view of the prediction results and balance situation makes the summaryanalysis, and provides a basis for water infrastructure construction in the next twenty yearsof Zhangjiakou City. Aiming at the shortage of water resources situation which has becoming more and more serious, this work has important guiding significance of rationaldevelopment and utilization of water resources of Zhangjiakou City.