Study On Evaluation Of Water Resources Allocation Schemes In Tianjin

Tianjin is one of the cities seriously lacking of water in China, which is the type of cities with less water. The quantity of water in Tianjin is only 183 cubic meters per capita per year, but the limit of lacking water is 500 cubic meters per capita per year. 76 percent of surface water has been exploited, which is far more than the limit of 40 percent. The development of economy in Tianjin is completely influenced because of water shortage and the ecological environment becomes more serious. Therefore, from the side of water supply and demand, some study on the evaluation of water resources allocation schemes in Tianjin is done in the thesis, hoping that it can provide some suggestion for Tianjin to allocate water resources rationally and solve the problem of the shortage of water resources.1. The condition of water resources in Tianjin is analyzed and the quantity of water resources is calculated as well. On the basis of the previous data of water use and supply, the status in quo and the trend are analyzed. The problems during water resources exploitage are discussed too.2. Water demand in Tianjin in 2010 and 2020 are forecasted by BP neural network and rations method respectively. And water available in plan years is forecasted too. The balance between demand and supply is analyzed according to water supply with different quality. The results show that there is lacking of water of 14.58 hundred million cubic meters and 13.02 hundred million cubic meters in 2010 and 2020 respectively, and the main departments shorting of water are agriculture and ecology.3. From the four aspects of social rationality, economic rationality, resource rationality and efficiency rationality, the judge system of evaluation of water resources allocation schemes is established and eight schemes are put forward as well. The multi-level fuzzy excelled selection model and BP neural network model are used to evaluate the water resources allocation schemes. The results show that the recommended scheme in Tianjin is"Luanhe-Tianjin Water Diversion Project + the Middle Line of South-to-North Water Diversion Project + the East Line of South-to-North Water Diversion Project + the intensify economy of water + increase the quantity of sewage + increase the quantity of seawater".