Study On Water Resources Security In Tianjin

Tianjin is one of the cities seriously lacking of water in China, which is the type of cities with less water. The quantity of water in Tianjin is only 182 cubic meters per capita per year, but the limit of lacking water is 500 cubic meters per capita per year. 76 percent of Tianjin's surface water has been exploited, which is far more than the limit of 40 percent. The development of economy in Tianjin is completely influenced because of water shortage and the ecological environment becomes more serious. Therefore, from the side of water supply and demand, some study on the security of water resources in Tianjin was done in the thesis, hoping that it can provide some suggestion for Tianjin to exploit new water sources and optimize water use.First of all, the state of water shortage in China and all over the world was analyzed. The concept of the security of water resources was brought forward. Based on more research findings in existence, the research advance in water security and the measures of it was summed up. The frame of the thesis was also put forward.The water resources in Tianjin were evaluated, and water condition was analyzed and the quantity of water was calculated as well. On the basis of the previous data of water use and supply, the data in 2002 and the trend were analyzed. The problem existing when water resources were exploited was discussed too.Water demand in Tianjin in 2010 and 2020 were forecasted by BP neural network and rations method respectively. And water available in plan years was forecasted too. The water balance between demand and supply was analyzed according to water supply by different quality. The results show that there is lacking of 14.3 hundred million cubic meters and 12.4 hundred million cubic meters of water in 2010 and 2020 respectively, and the main departments shorting water are agriculture and ecology.From the aspect of social security, economic security and ecological environment security, the judge system of water security was established. The fuzzy recognize theory was used to judge of the water security in Tianjin. The results show that the status of water security is too bad, and the main reason is that there is not enough water.The risk analysis model was built to evaluate the risk of water shortage. Water diverted from Luanhe to Tianjin and the middle line of South-North Water Transfer...