Accidents Analysis And Prediction On Railway Crossings

Base on the research of railway crossings current situation, the paper discussed its safety factors from humans, vehicles, characters of crossings, protective equipments, environment, safety management of crossings and the using of reflector material etc. According to safety management, safety consciousness of drivers and guarders, safety status of objects and characters of railway crossings etc, the author constructed the Safety Assessment Indexes System and then implemented it into several safety assessments of railway crossings. Counting occurrence time, occurrence fields, line departs and other aspects of Shenyang railway crossing accidents, the author found out the occurrence regularities of railway crossing accidents, which frequently occurred at noon in unmanned crossings and at dawn, at noon, at midnight in manned crossings. The author forecasted Shenyang railway crossing accident on macro-level with a linear regression equation and gray prediction model. The result indicated that it is reasonable and feasible to apply this model in reality. In addition, it is reasonable for Shenyang Hunan Shuijia manned crossings to apply U.S. Department of Transportation crossing accident prediction model as well. Base on the theory of accident prevention, the author proposed four aspects of railway crossing accident safety precautions from engineering, educational methods, ladders of management and emergency rescue system.