The Linear Study On Compensation Assessment Model Of Clean-up Activities

The globalization of the world economy has brought about the rapid development of water transport, but also results in frequent oil spills from ships, causing huge economic losses, serious ecological destruction as secondary harm to waters, destruction of harmonious development of human with socio-economic and environment. In accordance with the1992Protocol and the provisions of relevant laws and regulations in China, the damage should be compensated after the ship oil pollution. According to the nature and characteristics,they are divided into three categories:costs on clean-up activities, property losses, indirect losses and pure economic loss, the natural environment damage.Based on past cases of oil spill compensation all over the world, costs on clean-up activities are of the most significance, accounting for the80%-95%of total compensation, it is particularly necessary to establish a scientific, reasonable evaluation model for fair compensation for clean-up activities,because the timely assessment of the clean-up costs would seriously affect the procedure of compensation of pollution and clean-up activities and prevent any secondary ecological destruction resulting from oil spill.Based on data analysis of successful assessment of oil-spill compensation and existing estimation methods of compensation (including the direct assessment method, neural networks, fuzzy clustering method, etc.) this paper is to carry out the study on compensation assessment model of clean-up activities, main jobs includes:(1) Figue out the ship’s five key factor s dealing with the compensation of clean-up activities, create the objective function of the compensation of vessel oil pollution, and try to build a unitary linear regression model of oil spill clean-up compensation. With quantity of oil spill as the independent variable, the amount of compensation as the dependent variable.The simulation shows that this model can be an analog event analysis, to obtain more reliable amount of compensation or the upper and lower range for the oil spill compensation, proved to be a scientific and objective reference for compensation of oil pollution.(2) Build the multivariate linear model linear regression model based on study of the basic theory multivariate statistics and the analysis of the main factors dealing with the ship oil spill compensation, simulation shows that the unitary linear regression model prove to be effective and reasonable. And compared with linear regression model, there is clear features and goodness of fit.