Risk Assessment And Countermeasures Study Of Shipboard Oil Spill Accidents For Xiamen Waters

With the development of marine transportation and economic around the Xiamen ports in recent years, there exists high contamination risk of marine oil spill at Xiamen waters. However, vessel oil spills accidents not only cause serious marine environment pollution and damage marine ecosystems, but also bring huge economic losses. Therefore, carrying out the study of ship oil spill risk assessment, identifying and analyzing the likely happening place and quantity of location oil spills, discriminating accident pollution characteristics and the degree of harm, and putting forward the precautions to reducing have very important theoretical significance and practical value to promote the construction of Xiamen waters ship oil spill pollution emergency capacity and reducing the losses caused by the oil spill pollution as soon as possible.This thesis first introduces the risk identification and source terms analysis of ship oil spill in Xiamen waters. According to the Xiamen harbor pier transport status and development planning, through statistical analysis of vessel traffic flow data and the oil spills history records, some important risk parameters are identified and determined:the major oil spill risk type are marine accidents caused by ship collisions; Type of oil spills is ship fuel oil; The high incidence area of accidents is the intersection area between the main channel and secondary channel; The probability of the accident is0.5; The most likely spill amount is200t; The likely largest oil spill amount is1000t.Then basesd on Lagrange oil Particle tracking method, the oil spill drift-diffusion model and the oil spill weathering model are established.On that basis, we use the typical scenario simulation method and random scenario statistics method which the historical hydrological and meteorological conditions randomly combines into to forecast oil spill hazards.And we make sure that the probability of oil spill pollution is15-20%in Gulang Island, Jiyu Island, Xiamen Island and so on, and the fastest time of arrival is about2-3hours. On this basis, we proposes new oil spill harmful consequences exponential model which can take into account oil spill quantity, sensitivity to environmental protection goals, and the probability of contamination at the same time. It has creativity.By means of the comprehensive analysis between the happening probability of oil spill and harmful consequences index, the evaluation results shows:the overall oil spill risk of the Xiamen waters is high.At last, by adopting Risk matrix analysis method, combined with traffic management situation and oil spill response capability situation of Xiamen waters, we analyzes the exiting main problems from two risk factors (reducing the happening frequency of oil spills and reducing the harmful consequences of the oil spill), and the corresponding risk preventive measures. The emergency response capacity objectives around the Xiamen waters should be200t (in recent year).500t (till2015) and1000t (till2020) respectively.