Study Of The Navigation Risk Assessment Model In Channel Waters

With the rapid development of the navigation, the port must quicken its step to stronger itself as well as its constructions. It is the large traffic of the vessel and high traffic density of the port which is not only a receiving station but also a transfer station that leads to the rising risk of navigation.The channel waters as a part of the port navigation environment is a complicated system which is affected by a lot of factor and hard to collect the message so that it causes difficulties to determine the channel status accurately with the imperfection and ambiguous factor during the assessment. This thesis is aim to analysis and solve the problem on basis of the risk assessment of navigation in channels, and also apply the D-S evidence theory to the subject of channel risk assessment which is trying to solve the cockamamie mathematical computation when assessing the risk of the channels.According to the features of the channel navigation environment we troubleshoot the potential risk factor one by one on the basis of the data statistics of some accidents that affecting the safe navigation of the channels. Secondly, I take the result of the identity of the risk system when comparing all the factors and the risk indicator that screening out by relative isolation and common evaluation significance to establish the obvious hierarchical structure of risk assessment index system. Thirdly, I ascertain and divide the levels of risk of danger which exists in the system in accordance of rules and standard of Risk Quantification. Finally, I form the model of channel navigation risk assessment on basis of D-S evidence theory and the combining of the experts’ suggestion which apply linear function of the integrated risk assessment of the channel and the simple and convenient function of the basic confidence index.This thesis take the Shi Pu port as example and utilize the model to make a comparison assessment between the new risk and the olds’, then test the application of D-S evidence theory to the navigation risk assessment of channel.