Risk Assessment Of Seabed Pipeline Installation For 019Project

As a new branch of learning, risk assessment formulated a system of corresponding policies to control risks through discerning and evaluating the ones confronted in the ocean engineering, thus made the level of risk within a reasonable range, reaching the purpose of reducing accidents and arranging the resources appropriately. Starting off from the background of the research this paper carry through, the evolvement of the risk assessment ,and international advanced fruits on risk study of ocean engineering. Then this paper established a system of methods to evaluate the risk of the pipeline installation that fit the state of offshore oil exploitation, especially introduce some method of the risk assessment popular in the projects nowadays. Through collecting a great amount of data and spot investigation, with the analyzing method of fault trees, this paper first discerned the design mistakes, facilities failure, organization fault, mistaken operations and environments control failure, these five risk sources confronted in the seabed pipeline installation. This paper focuses on the calculation of the risk probability: some results are get from the data based on statistics, another computed by reliability theory, the other calculated according to fuzzy mathematics. This paper presents the method how to get the risk probability according to reliability theory together with the brief introduction of some reliability theory. In order to study the risk factors combining the suggestions of pipeline experts, a way how to quantify and average the fuzzy language opinions are presented firstly, then corresponding probability are get based on the calculation of triangle fuzzy mathematics. Because of the uncertainty of many factors, this paper also adopted the fuzzy mathematics method to analyze the consequence, built consequence evaluation model and got the risk figures of each risk factors finally. Compared with risk equivalent, those dangerous factors are found and sorted in order. At last, some measures and suggestions are brought forward to control risk. With the theory elaborated above as the basis, taking interfield pipeline installation of CFD11 offshore oil field as an example.