Water Conservancy Project Tendering Risk Assessment Based On Evidence Theory

Tender has become the primary task of water conservancy project implementation at home and abroad,with the deepening of the tender study,the risk of the tender system is reflected in the more obvious.How to effectively avoid the risk of water conservancy project tender received more and more managers attention.In order to accurately evaluate the bidding risk of water conservancy projects and master the methods of bidding risk assessment of hydraulic engineering,the author conducts the bidding risk assessment of hydraulic projects on the basis of studying the present situation of bidding at home and abroad.Firstly,the connotation of the risk evaluation of water conservancy project bidding system is defined,and the risk evaluation method is compared and analyzed.The D-S evidence theory can effectively reduce the uncertainty and is suitable for the risk evaluation of water conservancy project bidding system.Combined with the bidding system of Beihe bridge sluice rebuilding project in Jieyang city,the risk factors,the risk factors of bidding process and the risk factors of professional moral hazard are determined and the weights of each risk index are determined.Then,the impact factors of the subsystems are determined by social unrest,cultural differences,exchange rate changes,economic situation,legal perfection,policy changes,hydrological conditions,geological conditions,climate conditions,contracting methods,contract types,bidding methods,bidding documents,bidding The bidder's credibility,the bidder's credit,the bidder's malicious bidding,the bidder's integrity of the joint decision-making,the tender evaluation of the organization,the degree of perfection of the contract,the risk distribution,the tender unit responsibility,the tender unit fairness;(AHP)to determine the weights of subsystems and evaluation indexes.According to the characteristics of bidding system of Beihe bridge sluice reconstruction project in Jieyang City,a seepage monitoring system based on DS evidence theory is constructed.Risk assessment model to determine the risk level of the system.Finally,combining with the project practice of Beihe bridge sluice rebuilding project in Jieyang city,6 experts are consulted and the probabilistic allocation function of the evaluation index is obtained after the trust degree processing.The risk level of each index is determined by fusion evidence.And finally determine the risk level of the bidding system of the Beihe bridge sluice rebuilding project in Jieyang City,which means that there are general problems in the monitoring system and timely rectification,which conforms to the actual situation of the monitoring system.And the validity and rationality of the evaluation model are verified,which can be used for other similar projects.