Research On Evaluation Of Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity Of Chengdu City

In recent years many domestic and foreign scholars have made a lot of research on environmental carrying capacity, but there are still many deficiencies:less regard for regional socio-economic factors affecting the development, less research on the prediction of the dynamic process of change and development trend of regional environmental carrying capacity with departure from the regional development, and less research about regional environmental carrying capacity study closely integrated with the sustainable development strategy of sustainable development to provide the basis for decision. And there are no scholars who make research on the environmental carrying capacity of the Chengdu region. To solve the above problem, this paper further studies on the environmental carrying capacity, the main research work as follows:(1) Through domestic and international data research, combined with the characteristics of Chengdu, a set of regional environmental carrying capacity evaluation index system is established, and the indicators in the system using the analytic hierarchy is empowered.(2) Reference to Chengdu statistics from2005to2009, using of regional environmental carrying capacity relative residual rate model, quantitative analysis of regional environmental carrying capacity of the region is made. The results showed that:Chengdu regional environmental carrying capacity relative residual rate were in an upward trend between2005and2009, and the regional environmental carrying capacity has exceeded the environmental carrying capacity of the region in2005and2006.(3) Through the establishment of the evaluation model of the composite index, a short-board analysis about environmental carrying capacity of the Chengdu region is conducted. The result showed that the short board factors restricting the development of Chengdu is the economic development rate indicators.(4) The regional environmental carrying capacity of Chengdu and the other17cities were compared in this paper.Results show that the rate of relative surplus value of the environmental carrying capacity of the Chengdu region is lower than the mountains outside of Panzhihua city, higher than the same in plain city Deyang, Mianyang and hilly city rate of relative surplus value.(5) Reference to Chengdu statistics from2005to2009, based on gray prediction system, a dynamic prediction formula is established. The prediction results show that if Chengdu region contine the current model of development from2010to2020, the rate of relative surplus value of the regional environmental carrying capacity is greater than0, and showing a rising trend.