Analysis And Research Of The Environmental Carrying Capacity Of Shaanxi Province

With the high speed development of economy and the rapid growth of population,resource and environmental crisis appeared frequently, human had to start to reflectionthe coordination of population, resources, environment and economic. And finallyreached a global consensus-sustainable development strategy. Implementing the strategyof sustainable development, we must take full account of the bearing capacity of theenvironment. Only under the constraint of environmental carrying capacity, can werealize the optimization development. Therefore, the study of the environmentalcarrying capacity is of important theoretical value and practical significance.As one of the important province in western China, Shaanxi have a largepopulation and resources, and its economy have developed rapidly during the eleventhfive-year plan period, whose GDP is growing at double-digit rates every year. With thegreat success made in the economy, there are more and more serious resource andenvironment problems at the same time. It is a problem that how to ensure thesustainable development of economic with the environment not being affected at thesame time, which should be solved by Shaanxi during the twelfth five-year plan periodor in the future. For this important reason, this paper studied the carrying capacity ofthe environment of Shaanxi province, aiming to study the specific changes ofenvironmental carrying capacity, predict the future trend of development, then discusssome policies and suggestions on sustainable growth of Shaanxi’s environmentalcarrying capacity.The paper focused on the environmental carrying capacity of Shaanxi province. From studying the theory of environmental carrying capacity home and abroad, themodel and the method, considering the characteristics of Shaanxi province, this paperestablished the index system of Shaanxi’s environmental carrying capacity from threeaspects-the economic environment, the social environment and the resourcesenvironment. Taking the quantification of environmental carrying capacity as the mostimportant research content, using the state space method, the paper researchedShaanxi’s environmental carrying capacity among the years of2005to2010. Eventually,the author analyzed the environmental carrying quantity, environmental carryingcapacity, environmental carrying rate and their variational trends from2005to2010indetail, then predicted environmental carrying rate of Shaanxi province during twelfthfive-year plan period by using the grey prediction model. The research conclusions areas follows:(1) From2005to2010, environment carrying rate of Shaanxi province all fell ininterval [95%,99%], containing in strong state for many years. Overall, environmentalcarrying capacity caught in an extremely pessimistic dilemma.(2) The environmental carrying rate during the eleventh five-year plan period hasdropped slowly in the trend, and a large decline in the year of2009and2010, it is thefirst time below the level of2005. the environmental carrying capacity of Shaanxi hasimproved gradually.(3) From the environmental carrying rate of Shaanxi during the twelfth five-yearplan period, calculated by the gray prediction model, we can find that environmentalcarrying capacity will gradually decrease with the economic growth, the environmentalcarrying capacity will be better year after year, but still in strong state, Shaanxi provinceshould make efforts to improve the environmental quality and reduce environmentalcarrying capacity.The innovation points of this paper：(1) with the research results of environmental carrying capacity home and abroad，considering the actual situation of Shaanxi province, this article established a scientificand reasonable indicator system of evaluation, at the same time calculated theenvironment carrying rate of Shaanxi province by using the state space method and thebearing rate method. (2) This paper analyzed the environmental carrying capacity of Shaanxi provinceduring the eleventh five-year plan period and the twelfth five-year plan period, which isthe first comprehensive evaluation to environmental carrying capacity of Shaanxiprovince.