An Empirical Analysis On The Relationship Between Trade In Services And Trade In Goods Of China

In the process of development of international trade, trade in goods is in a dominant position, the scale of development of trade in services lagged far behind the scale of development of trade in goods. With the accelerating process of economic globalization and the further international division of labor, trade in service develop very fast, the developing rate of trade in service is faster than trade in goods, the share of trade in service is expanding in total world trade; Many countries followed this tendency, and changed their economy focus to developing services industry.In 2009, the total of trade in goods in china is over Japan, ranked second position next to American, and trade surplus is the number one. The development of trade in service in China lagged behind the development of trade in goods, their development is uncoordinated. Although the total of trade in service in china ranks fourth, it still has 100 billion gaps with UK which ranked third. And the deficit of trade in services is gradually expanding. The internal structure of trade in services is unreasonable, mostly concentrated in traditional sectors of services industry, which greatly restricted the process from great to power of China. Therefore, on the one hand, we should promote trade in services and trade in goods trade coordinated development, using the development of trade in goods to drive the development of service trade, improving the international competitiveness of trade in service; On the other hand, the development of trade in service should promote the structure upgrade of trade in goods, optimize the trade structure and change the mode of foreign trade growth, accelerate the pace from great-trader to power-trader.This paper base on the theory of international division of labor, industrial structure evolution theory and the global value chain theory, discuss the joint development theory of trade in services and trade in goods. We found that trade in goods promotes the development of trade in services, trade in services optimizes the structure of trade in goods, the two are the different segments of the same value chain, and they are inseparable and complementary. And then, we describe recent development status of trade in service and trade in goods from the scale of development, growth, trade competitiveness, and many other objective aspects, intuitively feel the relationship between trade in service and trade in goods. This paper adopts impulse response function method, using VAR model and EVIEWS measuring software, analyze the dynamic interaction between trade in service and trade in goods, found that trade in goods have a greater role in promoting trade in services, but impact on trade in goods by trade in services delayed. Trade in goods every change one percentage point, trade in services volume change 0.8468 percentage points; trade in services every change one percentage point, can make trade in goods volume change 1.1673 percentage points. The influence of trade in services to trade in goods is big than trade in goods to trade in services. Meanwhile, starting from the structure, analysis the impact to trade in goods of diffident sectors, conclude that consumer services and traditional services play a greater impact on trade in goods. Finally, based on empirical analysis results, we make our own policy recommendations to promote the joint development of trade in services and trade in goods.