EPC Project Risk Evaluation And Control Study In The Prophase Of DH Power Plant Of YN Country

EPC contract projects can be obviously high risky for the following reasons. For one thing, engineering factors refer to foreign contracted projects are so different from domestic projects, including the engineering size and scope, the high technical requirements, international politics, international economic, diplomacy, foreign exchange, import and export, procurement, transportation, funds and so on. For another, the high risks also always exist in different technical standards and specifications, changeable geography and climate, diverse rules and regulations, various social customs and religious beliefs and so on. In view of lack of time and resources in the bidding period and early planning stages, how to access risks accurately and avoid or control risks effectively has been a highlight issue to EPC contractors of foreign contracted projects for a long time.Therefore, the study made a systematic study about the risks of the implement of EPC projects during the EPC bid quotation or preliminary planning stage both in qualitative way and the quantitative one, which combined the EPC of DH power plant in YN and analyzes the present international EPC market situation and the high-risks, in the base of the general risk-assessment theory and methods.The primary contents are as follows:(1) Based on a summary of former researches and the characteristics of the DH power plant, it studied the risk identification, risk analysis and risk response of DH projects, and also determined how to make a risk evaluation and control.(2)In accordance with the characteristics of the DH project , it carried out a comprehensive risk plan, including risk definition, risk decomposition, risk coding, risk process, risk analysis and risk evaluation criteria, etc..(3)In light of risk planning, risk checklist had been used to assess the risk of DH project in the general and risk register was summarized.(4)By means of an advanced Expert Evaluation Method, a qualitative analysis of DH project risks was made, so that the basic risk level and ordering relation could be confirmed.(5)On the basis of the qualitative analysis, computed the possible loss on risky assets, used Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk probability and then calculated the value-at-risk, above on which, an adjustment was made on the basic risk level and ordering relation.(6)According to the risk analysis and risk plan, combining both the qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, it made an effectiveness analysis on risk response measures, sequencing and optimization of that were determined as well.The study results of this paper could be used as a reference while doing risks assessment during the foreign EPC bid and projects implementation planning stage by EPC contractors, so that the risks of foreign contracted projects can be predicted and controlled, the losses that will result from risks can be reduced and the prospective economic performance can be increased.