Research On Transporation Economic Early-warning Model Based On System Dynamics

After the financial crisis, in order to cope with financial tsunami, the central authorities adjust the macroeconomic policies rapidly by putting forward the implementing proactive fiscal policy and the moderate loose monetary policy,increasing the transport infrastructure investment and expanding domestic demand which is to maintain steady growth of the Chinese economy.The central authorities has announced a investment plan of 4 trillion yuan and the local government successively released a investment plan which includes nearly 18 trillion yuan.The transportation industry will enter a new development phase. Therefore, it is necessary to take the early-warning management ideas to research the transportation economy system early-warning and to monitor the operation of regional transportation economy system.Take effective measures to promote transportation economy of scientific and harmonious development when alarming the potential dangers.Based on the system theory,the article analysis interactive relationship between transportation and regional economic.Takeing the system dynamics as framework,the article establish the traffic economic early-warning system by using transportation system analysis, econometrics model,the computer and other means which is proved by research FuJian province transportation economy system running status from 2011 to 2015.Firstly, the article states the connotation and characteristics of transportation economic EW system and tries to put forward the ideas and methods of researching transportation economy early-warning system which is based on the theory of the domestic and overseas early-warning, transportation, regional economy and system dynamic.Secondly, the article analysis interactive relationship between transportation and regional economic and ascertains the causal relationship of system elements by using the system theory.Based on the causality,the paper establishes the traffic economic early-warning system dynamics model.Finally, take FuJian province for example to proves the feasibility of transportation economy system dynamics early-warning model. According to the existed statistical data and historical data, and the operation model,the paper quantitative analysis FuJian transportation economic system and have a simulation by using Vensim software.Then the article analysis warning source according to the state of development of early warning signal and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.