Analysis And Early Warning Research On The Influence Factors Of Regional Energy Security Exogenous Sources

Energy,as the foundation of social development and human progress,is also the guarantee for the healthy and stable operation of the national economy.In the context of the increasingly serious global energy security and national energy security issues,the status of regional energy security is not optimistic.In recent years,the supply of energy has been interrupted in many regions of China.For example,in November 2009,the once-60-year-old Blizzard in North China directly affected the normal traffic of railways and highways in Beijing,Hebei,Shandong and Henan,which has led to a shortage of coal supply in East China,Central China and Beijing-Tianjin-Wing areas.The occurrence of these events shows that China's regional energy security system lacks a corresponding early warning system for emergencies,making the regional energy supply and demand gaps frequent.Based on this,in order to guarantee the normal supply capacity of regional energy,this article starts from the perspective of an exogenous police source and conducts research on regional energy security exogenous police sources.This article first introduced the theoretical part of regional energy security exogenous police sources,including energy security theory,regional energy security related theory,definition of regional energy security exogenous police sources,according to basic data research from the outbreak time,the outbreak area,the type of energy that broke out The main characteristics of energy security incidents are summarized in four aspects of outbreak incentives,and the derivation process of regional energy security shortage events is analyzed from three aspects: energy price fluctuations,energy policy adjustments and changes in the external environment.Factor analysis provides the theoretical basis;then the basic principles of system dynamics are used to study the process of regional energy security exogenous sources of police influence and the basic characteristics and application scope of system dynamics are outlined and two major sources of energy supply and energy consumption are constructed.Sub-system analysis of regional energy security Exogenous police sources influence the energy supply gap,through the sensitivity analysis of Vensim PLE,it is concluded that the degree of natural disasters and the criticality of the event will have a negative impact on the energy supply,pricing mechanism for energy demand Will have a negative effect,Capacity has a positive impact on energy supply.Secondly,the basic theory of case-based reasoning is combined with the method oforder relationship measurement and the integration mechanism is designed to integrate the order relationship between the target case of each attribute subspace and the historical case and the order relationship-case reasoning method is proposed.Using case presentations,72 cases were extracted from energy security exogenous police events from 2000 to 2016,and3 cases were randomly selected as target cases.Case-based reasoning methods based on order relationships were used to retrieve target cases.The closest historical case.