Research On Early Warning System Of Regional Tourism Circular Economy

With the development of tourism,the negative impact of tourism to the natural ecological environment and cultural ecological environment highlighted gradually. Circular economy is promoted a mode of economic development which friendly for resource and environment. Therefore,it has become the new perspective that the circular economy theory is used to research the development of tourism,to develop Tourism Circular Economy. At the same time, including China,many countries and regions have begun to research and practice Tourism Circular Economy. The main content of this paper is based on the study of Tourism Circular Economy, which combined with early warning knowledge, to establish the early warning system of regional tourism circular economy. The regional and the tourism management can take a basis from it.In this paper, we should know the circular economy of tourism's operational status and the basic content of the normative understanding of the related early warning systems and combination of theory and practice first. And the recycling economy of tourism index system of early warning systems and prediction models have been studied. Finally, this paper take Chongqing for example, has researched the establishment of the regional early-warning model of circular economy tourism. Because of its tourism problems in the development of circular economy, we take forward corresponding countermeasures to solve it and provide a new idea for the healthy development of circular economy. At the same time it expanded circular economic theory applications. This paper consists of five parts, as follows:In the first part, based on the connotation in the context of circular economy and the current cycle of economic studies on tourism at home and abroad we proposed the content of circular economy of tourism. Discussed the level of circular economy on tourism and models we put forward the tourism circular economy at the macro, mid and micro levels of the three modes of operation.In the second part,through theories on early warning system of tourism related circular economy, we proposed the system of early warning systems with a tourism concept of circular economy. Then following the recycling economy, tourism and sustainable development, economic theories of early warning, and supplemented by the economic warning method, we proposed right way to early warning system for tourism circular economy.In the third part, by the structure of current early warning systems analysis and understanding of the connotation of tourism circular economy, we establish early warning system of circular economy tourism structure and through out analysis of this system we got the functions and characteristics of early warning systems.In the fourth part, from the use of early warning indicator system to build, and combined with analytic hierarchy process, we establish early-warning model of circular economy of tourism. At the same time the data prediction model was established by the multiple linear regression method. We use the results to get the degree of the early warning system of tourism circular economy, and find the sources. At last we can take the measures to solve the problem.In the fifth part, we take Chongqing as an example, put the early warning system of regional tourism circular economy in practice. We use quantitative analysis in the past 10 years and the next five years of Chongqing Municipality's tourism development of circular economy, and combined the qualitative analysis with Chongqing City Economic, social and tourism development and get a resulted that recycling economy in Chongqing tourism development in the next period of time are still in state of alert. For the forecast results, we should take positive measures and measures in order to get rid of state of alert as soon as possible.Tourism circular economy has enriched the theory of sustainable development of tourism, and early warning system of tourism circular economy has enriched the theory of tourism circular economy. Early warning system of tourism circular economy has opened up an new ideas on early warning system for sustainable tourism development, and developing the application use of circular economy and the theory of economic early-warning .This paper present the early warning system of tourism circular economy can be applied at the macro society, the concept of regional and micro-enterprise three levels, and it can be a new idea for tourism circular economy's virtuous development.