Tangshan Regional Economic Early Warning System Analysis

Region economy is a multi-variable, complicated network system.Its process is affected by many factors, such as economy, politics, nature, market, technology and so on.That will cause fluctuation in some phases of economy process.The task of this study is to master the main factors that affect the economy fluctuation,to pre-warn the economy system tend and the fluctuating intension.According to the actual process of Tangshan economy, this paper try to set up the system about region economy's pre-warning by using Multi-Variable Statatical analasys Method.According to the goal of the pre-warning system and the supporting degree of the statatic system,we choose 22 economy indexes which heavily affect the whole economy,represent the main aspect of the economy,and then we caculate their according rising indexes.On the basis of above,we firstly reduce the 22 pre-warning indexes to 13 indexes to setup the indexes system by using the Factor Analysis. Then we abstain five-basis pattern and its law by using dynamic clustering method. And then, according to the above information, we setup objective, scientific economy pattern identifying system by using multi-variable distinguishing method and finish the pre-warning goal of the whole economy At last, we utilize the AR model of Time Serial to establish 13 short-term forecast models about the pre-warning indexes, and to finish the pre-warning goal of the whole economy by uniting the economy pattern identifying system. The Return Judging result indicate that the Pre-warning system is effective and exact.