Study On Early Warning Of Sustainable Development For Town Of Economy Based On SD

With the energetical promotion of the urbanization of our country, the important links built in this urban development framework in town are paid close attention to more and more by people too. But face the current situations of population expansion, resource shortage, deterioration of the environment, how carry on prewarning state of sustainable development to these, already seem very important among the overall situation to build " harmonious society ".This thesis has summarized the domestic and international scholar's research results about sustainable development of town and sustainable development prewarning in recent years at first, intension, function characteristic and design principle of analyzing early warning system of sustainable development of town, construct the index system of the early warning system.The thesis regards development of the comprehensive town of economy as the research object, use systematic dynamics to put forward the concept of " sustainable development degree in the town " with coordinating one degree of methods, as the alert feeling index of the early warning system. Pass to society, economy, resource, each comprehensive analysis of the subsystem of environment of town, collect relevant indexes and carry on research, has set up the early warning system of sustainable development of town finally, so as to weigh sustainable degree of development of town.Thesis as research object, adopt this town index datum for 1994-2005 years with QiuGa town of Ningbo city, carry on sustainable early warning simulation to QiuGa town development for 1995-2005 year, and early warning system model structure examine with the sensitivity analyzing, prove this system feasibility and validity of model, analyze the development trend of QiuGa town for less than 2006-2008 year by artificial result, through policy laboratory, propose corresponding town build policy recommendations of sustainable development.The real example analysis indicates, the early warning system of sustainable development of town established on the basis of the dynamics method of the system can analyze quantitatively the town develops the relation between every key element, have reflected the development degree, harmony and constant of the town synthetically; And can adjust through the state of development to the town of policy experiment, advance towards the sustainable developing direction finally.