A Study On Regional Logistics Development Based On Analytic Hierarchy Process And System Dynamics-Taking Heilongjiang Province As An Example

The development level,mature degree and the efficiency of regional logistics system is becoming one of the significant marks, which measure the degree of modernization and the economic competition of an area. At present,many governors are making the regional logistics or logistics industry development planning actively and regarding it as an important strategic step to strengthen regional comprehensive competition.Based on considerations of the regional economic, regional infrastructure, regional demands of logistic service, logistics industry scale and regional informatization, the article implants system dynamics model to analyze the cause and effect relationship, in order to provide more accurate results and policy basis for government departments.,while brings forward proposals about quantitative evaluation and promotion regional logistics of Heilongjiang Province. The main characteristic of this article is combining quantitative with qualitative analysis, building statistical model and simulation to explain the economic reality.This article is divided into five sections. the first chapter is introduction part, elaborates research backgroud and research significance.In the second chapter makes a brief introduction on the basic concepts of system dynamics, model structure, model principles and processes as well as the system dynamics software vensim. In the third chapter, evaluatest the logistics development scientificly and quantitatively in the method of AHP, using the software of SPSS,so as to provide accurate results and policy basis. It has a very important realistic significance in promoting logistics development. Chapter IV, through the analysis of various factors, establishes the regional logistics system dynamics simulation model consisted of regional economic, logistics demands,logistics industy marge, regional informatization, sub-model.Chapter V, carrys out the history teting and sensitivity analysis about simulation results of the model to determine the reasonableness of model building, and comes to the results of model analysis. At the end, makes appropriate recommendations and measures based on the analysis before.Innovations:At present, there are very few effective ways to do reasearch on regional logistics, this article boldly attempts to push the boudaries of system dynamics and regional logistics. This article implant system dynamics ideas and methods to analyze the regional logistics—social and economic complex.As knowledge and time limited, the inadequacies exist in. Maybe, it is still an instructive and valuable attempt.