| With the improvement of socialist market economic structure and the transformation of state-owned enterprises, the small and medium scale enterprises led a rapid development.But the living environment of the small and medium scale enterprises is not not optimistic. In accordance with a research report from the Central Committee of China Democratic National Construction Association, the mean lifetime of small and medium scale enterprises is only 3.7yeaes.One of the most reasons why the small and medium scale enterprises are so fragile is that they have difficulties in financing.Our country scholars'previous research finds the causes of difficulty of the small and medium scale enterprises in financing are various. In this paper, we consider one of the causes is that the financing risk of small and medium scale enterprises is too great. By means of collecting the financial data and founding mathematical model, we can predict the default probability of small and medium scale enterprises. Then we can develop the financing risk management of small and medium scale enterprises according to the default probability got by predicting and provide a basis for commercial banks on lending.The chief contents listed as below:Firstly, this paper describes the basic condition of small and medium scale enterprises in our country, including their station and financing statues, then point out financing risks are one of the reasons of their difficulty in financing.Secondly, this paper analyzes the forms of expression and factors of financial risks of small and medium scale enterprises.Thirdly, this paper analyzes the stages of financing risks management and point out financial risk warning system is an important part of financing risks management. Then we built financing risk warning system by means of statistical analysis. At last, this paper provides advises on how to develop the financial risks management of small and medium scale enterprises from the angle of small and medium scale enterprises themselves, commercial banks and macroeconomic situation.The innovation listed as below:(1) In this paper, we use logistic regressive model to predict the probability of default of small and medium scale enterprises, and then create the financing risk warning model. Through that work maintained above, we complement the current domestic scholars'insufficiency on quantitative research about the financing risk of small and medium scale enterprises.(2) In this paper, when we create the financing risk warning model of small and medium scale enterprises, we consider about the development capacity and cash flows. Both of the tow indicators are more and more important o on affecting of small and medium scale enterprises financing risk with the development of economy, but they are rarely in previous paper. |
