Study On The Time Scale Effect Of Urban Land Price Upon Land Scale

Urban land scale expansion is the inevitable result and important index of urbanization. At present, urban land scale expansion shows a tendency with increasing scale and accelerating speed of extension, which brings severe challenges to land, particularly farmland preservation. As an important indicator of supply-demand changes of land market, land price is playing a significant role in affecting the scale expansion of urban land. Further study on effect mechanisms of urban land price upon land scale expansion could help the government to formulate rational land price control policy and urban land use planning, to guide rational development of urban land price, beneficial to give full play to regulation of price lever, to correctly guide urban land use direction and rational distribution. It would improve the level of intensive utilization of urban land and maximize utilizing efficiency of urban land to achieve the rational development of the city.The paper relies on Natural Science Foundation Projects "Research on rational urban land-use scale based on the spatial and temporal variation of urban land price level" (from 2009 to 2011, NO.40871053.). It takes the five municipal districts in Shijiazhuang City (hereafter refers to as "five districts")for study area, proceed from the location theory, urban rent theory, system theory and sustainable development, the concept of rank clocks is introducted. According to the standard land price and dynamic monitoring data, using the spatial analysis, analyzes the time evolution track of different purposes (commercial, residential and industrial) land prices and urban land scale of the five districts from 2003 to 2008. SPSS and ArcGIS softwares are used to make correlation analysis and curve fitting, then discusses temporal interactions of land prices upon urban land scale. At last, the effect mechanisms of urban land price upon land scale expansion is revealed, which provides the basis for land price to play its role during expansion of land space.Conclusion mainly include:(1) Different purposes land prices of the five districts show gradually rising trend on the whole. Since 2003, the changes of them is different in each period. By small-time scale analysis, commercial land price, of the five districts grew fastest in 2004, and the price of Yuhua District was on the rise, the other four districts but declined in 2008. Residential land prices of the overall five districts showed a rising trend. The most significant was the rate of Yuhua District. The residential land price of Qiaodong District has consistently ranked first, and of Xinhua District declined slightly in 2006. Industrial land price of the five municipal districts showed increasing trend with stability. The industrial land prices of Chang'an was the highest,while Qiaoxi District the lowest. By middle-time scale analysis, since 2003, commercial land price rate is the largest, residential next, industrial is minimal. Commercial land price changes overall can be divided into three stages:2003-2004 grows rapidly, 2004-2007 grows smoothly and slowly,2007-2008 except Yuhua District, generally fall outside. Residential land price changes on the whole could be divided into two phases: sustainedly grows from 2003 to 2005, From 2005 to 2008, rises overally, while Xinhua in 2006 and Qiaoxi in 2008 reduce, and 2006-2007 Xinhua as well, as Yuhua grow significantly. Industrial land price of the five districts are positive growth, especially phenomenal growth after 2006.(2) Urban land scales of the five districts have been in a growth trend. By small-time scale analysis, by 2003 the urban land scales change variously, while not significantly annually. By middle-time scale analysis, from 2003 to 2008, Qiaoxi District has been the largest, while Yuhua District the smallest.(3) The five districts each have one purpose land price evolution path to be consistent with its land scale. The index changes in industrial land price of Chang'an and Qiaoxi, commercial land price of Qiaodong District, residential land price of Xinhua District and Yuhua District, and urban land scale respectively have the same traces, and the similar evolution trend annually. Therefore, the relationship between the index change of land price and urban land scale respectively is quantitatively analized, using the coupling model established with SPSS 17.0.(4) The effect mechanisms of urban land price upon land scale expansion is studied, and the expansion tendency of urban land and the corresponding countermeasures are analized. Through different ways, national and regional macro-control policies, economic development, urban population, urban planning and location affect land price and urban land scale expansion. In addition, invalidation of land price control mechanisms would lead to blind and spreading expansion of urban land. According to the effect mechanism of urban land price upon land scale expansion, combined with the overall urban planning in Shijiazhuang City, the expansion of urban land will be limited, and mainly in the north of Xinhua District, Qiaodong District and Chang'an District, as well as in the south of Qiaoxi District and Yuhua District appropriately. Thus, the countermeasures are put forward.