Influence On Urban Land Reserve System And Study On Reasonable Reserve Scale

Land reserve system has become an important measure of controlling land market,reducing and preventing the loss of state-owned assets, controlling the land price, improving the city land use structure, and optimizing the allocation of land resources; At the same time,the land from land reserve system has bocome the main source of Urban land market. By the means of land reserve system, urban land market were benign macror-control;urban land resources were effectively used and the construction of city were promoted healthily and stably. Therefore, it is stared in the face for forecasting the reasonable scale.This paper forecasted the rational scale of land reserves in Rizhao City by application of grey prediction model and regression prediction model. Specific conclusions is shown as follow:1. With the growth of the non-agricultural population, the demand on commodity oncommercial residential building is increasing. That is to say.as the improvement of urbanization, the expanding demand of the residence from burban residents has provoked the demand on the housing land. According to the analysis on rizhao city land reserve status,this paper predict the demand on housing land area of rizhao city from310.6hm2in2011to504.9hm2in2018by using grey fuzzy forecasting model prediction method.2. With the growth of per capita consumer spending, the demand on business service industry building is increasing.It is positively related between demand on business service industry building is increasing and the growth of per capita consumer spending. This paper predict the demand on business service industry building land area of rizhao city from62.3hm2in2011to102.7hm2in2018by using multivariable linear regression model.3. Through the demand on housing land forecasted by gray prediction model of fuzzy and thats on business service industry building land forecasted by multivariable linear regression model,the land reserve systems demand on land is increasing from373.3hm2in2011to607hm2in2018.4. Because of rizhao city land reserve started later and the origin of capital is narrower, mostly from bank loans, reserved land can supply in the near future and land reserve cycle is just for1year. In2010, the number of reserved land is close to300hm2in Rizhao City which can not guarantee two years of supply. With the accumulation of land reserve funds, land reserve cycle can be appropriatly extended.5. Self-contained laws and regulations should be perfected in order to ensure the normal operation of the city land reserve system, such as operational approach and management system for purchasing reserving and selling; Supervision system should be established for regulating land reserve fund operation and management. Urban land management department shoud perfect the reserved land selling system in orderr to reduce the shock caused by land reserve system ot urban real estate price.