Research On Emergency Plan Business Process Modeling And Analysis Based On Colored Petri Nets

The rare disaster of flood in Northeast China and the heavy mountain torrents and debris flow in Gansu province in 2010 tell us that our social system is still very vulnerable in the face of the heavy threat and disaster again. In order to enhance the ability of emergency management, it's very necessary to formulate correct and reasonable emergency plan and establish efficient and fast emergency response mechanism. Lots of problems turn out when textual emergency plans are applied in practice because the plans are lack of practical proof and verification. In order to better utilize information technology to support emergency management and make emergency plans play a more important role in the process of emergency handling, emergency process analysis is very important. The problem about how to represent emergency process in the method of formalization, which should be abstracted from the perspective of information treatment, has become one of major research projects in the emergency systematization and digitalization.With the support from the item of National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.70871061), regarding representation formalism of emergency plan as starting point, the paper introduces workflow modeling theory based on Petri nets to emergency business process management, and make research on the model establishment based on Petri nets. Furthermore, the property verification and performance analysis are discussed.(1) Emergency business process CPN hierarchical model is established. In the basis of designed the framework of model establishment and analysis, each step of working thought is briefly introduced. Then the requirements sources of emergency plan business process are discussed and analyzed, and the process of each step is designed. Furthermore, with the support of CPN Tools, the process model is established based on colored Petri nets, and the details about the model are analyzed.(2) Fire accident emergency plan business process model is established and the property verification is completed. Combined with the character of fire accident emergency plan, the case model is proposed. CPN Tools is used for make property verification, and the results show that the model is not only logically true, but also is good in behavior.(3) Performance analysis of the case model is made. Firstly the performance analysis algorithm is designed. Through establishing the covering tree model and corresponding Markov chain, the transfer rate matrix is obtained. Then the steady-state probability of each reachable state is calculated. According to these, some performance indexes are got, such as utilization and busy ration. Finally the paper makes evaluation and analysis for the case model.