Northeast Of Chongqing Population Carrying Capacity Study

Chongqing northeast economic region with the Three Gorges Reservoir area as its main body, includes 11 districts and counties. Since becoming a municipality, Chongqing has got a great achievement in environment, economic and social development, but the overall development levels are barely satisfactory. We cannot deny the fact that the economic and social whole index is still in the downstream level of Chongqing, since there are still some problems severely like mass poverty-stricken areas, much population and little land and ecological environmental problems. In the final analysis, the fragile environment carrying excessive population takes the main responsibility for those problems, and hence to guide the surplus population transfer orderly becomes the important guarantee for its sustainable development. In order to realize the subtainable development of the area in aspects of population, natural resources, environment, economy and society, calculating reasonably the population capacity of Chongqing northeast area according to the development level and potential of Chongqing becomes an important part of its sustainable development strategy.According to the functional localization identified by Chongqing government bout a the northeast of Chongqing as a restricted zone, and the statistics of relevant data, this thesis gives a summary involving the existing problems, development trend and status quo of population, resources, environment, economy and society in its 11 counties clued WanZhoudistrict,liangpingCounty,hengKouCounty,FengDouXianCounty,DianJiangXian County, zhongxian County, kaixian county, YunYang County, FengJie County, wushan, WuXi County ) Besides, this thesis makes a relevant analysis about the data of its very permanent population and the eleven representative index in resources,environment, the economy and society development, and finally draws three high-value index: gricultural acreage, whole-society fixed capital investments and education outcomes. Through a as astablishing return model and appropriate population formula,the appropriate population of districts and counties of Chongqing northeast is calculated according to the logical of radix which is based on the present population of Chongqing.Through analyzing the condition of population from static and dynamic aspects, it is showed that the northeast area of Chongqing is facing severe problem of the surplus populaton. The thesis also analyzes the factors that influence the population capacity of each districts and courties. According to the needs of the restricted zone, the following politics suggestions can be used to enhance the bearing capabilities of resources, economics and society: protecting the resource for cultivatin; improving the grain market;controlling population growth rate; guiding the surplus population to live in the"one circle"district with huge bearing capacility and developing townlet with suitable condition; intensifying social fixed capital investments; developing the ecological agriculture and intensive cultivation; enhancing the construction of infrastructure facilities, the education power of the area and the basic medical insurance of the society.