The Population Changes After The "Universal Two-child Policy" Opening In The Northeast China Region

In this paper,based on the 2010 census data and supplemented by the 2016 China Statistical Yearbook,the 25-year(2015-2040)population prediction is carried out in the northeastern region that affected by the "universal two-child policy" using the improved Leslie Population Forecast Model,and the population is analyzed from five aspects,namely,population age structure,population aging level,population dependency ratio,labor force population and population size.Besides,this paper also explores the impact of these new population births and growth on the northeastern region.According to the results of this paper,a brief population peak will be emerged in the northeastern region after the implementation of the "universal two-child" policy during 2025 to 2030,and the population size will reach to 117 million-1.31 million.In the following,the population in the northeastern region will continue to decline,the population dependency ratio will rise,and the aging process will not be slowed down with the advance of the policy.When the fertility rate increases to the replacement level,there will be a small increase in the size of the labor force in 2030,but the supplementary state of labor force can only maintain a very short period of time before a permanent decline.Based on the prediction results and the current economic situation of the northeastern region,it is concluded that the short-term economic and social impact of the implementation of "universal two-child" policy is mainly reflected in the influence of manpower,financial resource and technical pressure in the maternal and child health system and social and economic issues that caused by the pressure of labor survival.The long-term impact is that the northeastern society will face the issues of weakening population consumption ability and insufficient support for industrial restructuring 15 years after the implementation of the policy.This requires the northeastern area to dependent on domestic demand to stimulate external demand,and to create social and economic values.Finally,this paper discusses the opportunities and crises in the maternal and child health care that caused by the change of the fertility rate;the opportunities and crises in the employment pressure caused by the change of the population structure;the opportunities and crises brought about by the increased population dependency ratio;as well as the opportunities and crises in the population aging;in addition,the corresponding solutions are also put forward.