Research On Early-warning Mechanism Of Urban Water Supply

Water resource is the basis of modern economic resources sustainable development of economy as it is the natural resource that human cannot leave both in daily life and production. With the rapid development of economy and the increasing growth of population, water consumption and the pollution of water quality increased quickly and the safety of water resource becomes more and more important. City is the center of politics, economy and culture of the society, and the safety of the nation is based on the safety of city. As one of the most important part of water safety, the safety of water supply is the fundamental to maintain the normal operation of the city's safety. The main factors for establishing the early-warning of urban water safety system is the change of quantity and quality of water supply. This paper proposed the view on the basis of analysis of relevant laws and regulations and documents that establish the early-warning mechanism of water supply can protect the safety of water supply. The paper took the Hechuan area of Chongqing for example, and the main contents of the thesis are as follows:At first, this paper analyzed the basic situation of Hechuan and chose the main factors which effect the change of water. Then established three prediction model of water: the multiple linear regression forecasting model, grey GM(1,1) prediction model and the combination forecast model of the two models, and used different methods to test the models to ensure the feasibility of them. After determined the models through the inspection, it fit the predictive value and the actual value and compares them.Secondly, analysis the problems in the system of water supply and the construction of water resources engineering and water conservancy project in order to research the development and utilization and potential of water resources. Selected the 2010, 2015and 2020 for level years and forecasts the available water under different guaranteed rates such as 50%, 75% and 95%. Then it calculated the water demand by the established models and analysis the balance of water supply and water demand.Finally, according to the balance of water supply and water demand and the actual situation of Hechuan, it list the alert level and the criteria by the ratio of forecast water supply and water demand and sudden water safety accidents caused by the influence degree. Then established the early-warning mechanism of water supply the emergency plan based on the division of government functions of Hechuan.