Assessing Synthetic Carrying Capacity Based On Data Mining And GIS

In recent years, studying synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone is a new focus, it is a complicated index who influenced not only by marine factors but also terrestrial factors. At the same time, synthetic carrying capacity prediction in coastal zone attracts more and more researchers. As the marine environment deteriorates and human affects the coastal ecological system badly, assessment and prediction synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone will attract the government and researcher's eyes.With the Remote Sensing data, practical survey data, sample data and Yearbook data of coastal zone in Zhoushan, we deal with a variety of these data until whose form satisfy our mind, according to them, we build a coastal indicators system for coastal carrying-capacity assess based on data mining technology, which includes not only terrestrial ecosystems but also marine ecosystems. We also use modified AD-AS model in economic to calculate the value of synthetic carrying capacity, and assess which level it is. In the final, SVM model is used to imitate and forecast its variation tendency in future years. We could build the new model to assess synthetical carrying capacity in coastal zone, so do the knowledge base and model library.The results shows:1) Synthetic carrying capacity value is decided by Ecological City and reference city's value;2) Ecology would have a new view if it has a cross with other subjects, such as economic;3)The level of capacity result could be divided into5styles based on former3ones, which is respectively no-load, loadable, full load, overload and super load;4)The forcast accuracy has reached to90%by using SVR;5) Synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone of Zhoushan is respectively no-load, no-load, no-load, loadable, loadable from2005to2009, it has an average increase6.5%from2005to2008, while it begins to decrease in2009by3%. Until2015, the predictable capacity is0.8099in overload state, which decreases55%compared with which in2009and has an average9.25%.