A Study Of Life-rescuing Scenario Reconstruction And Evolution Based On The Scenario Section

Since the US 9.11 Terrorist Incident, the world has entered into an era of frequent unconventional emergencies, and the traditional risk management and crisis management has to be remodeled to cope with these unconventional emergencies. China, with its vast territory and abundant resources, enjoys differentiated geology and climate. Meanwhile, the imbalance of regional development is evidenced by the extraordinary disparity between the east coastal regions and the west, remote and pasturing regions, as well as between the urban and rural areas. China?s energy structure, industrial layout and extensive economic growth pattern have gradually resulted in increasingly intense conflicts between economic development, resources allocation, and eco-environmental protection. It also gave rise to a series of unconventional emergencies inclusive of terror and violent attacks, public security emergencies, public health emergencies, mega natural hazard and extreme climate emergencies, and catastrophic safety emergencies. These unconventional emergencies have become a severe challenge to countries and the human world, and developing a scientific and effective management system to cope with them is an urgent demand for the world, especially for the management circle.Unconventional emergency indicates disastrous incidents that highly short of information, without adequate omen, highly urgent, highly abrupt, highly uncertain, highly hazardous, and with serious secondary and derivatives disasters. The outbreak of unconventional emergencies was usually varied case by case with constantly changing conditions. The unpredictability of such kinds of events, in general, results in malfunction or failure of traditional risk management model “predict-coping”. Drawn from various sorts of tragic experiences in reality, theoretical circle and all communities have gradually realized the necessity of shifting from traditional treatment model into “Senario-coping” model.In “senario-coping” model, the “scenario” refers to the noumenon and premise of the scene, while “coping” refers to the response and repercussion towards the scene. The unconventional emergency is scenario dependent and manifesting via scenario, therefore, the research upon unconventional emergency is essentially the study of scenario. Events are described by scenarios, which in turn are comprised of situational factors. The description of events is made possible by the situational factors and structure, without scenario, events cannot be depicted, represented, or expressed. Through interaction of situational factors and scenario generation mechanism, people gradually understand and recognize scenarios, and via study of scenario evolution and evolution mechanism, thus grasping scenarios, understanding and grasping the development and evolution law of unconventional emergencies, whereby figuring out targeted coping strategy and effective coping measures towards them scientifically. Hence, the premise and foundation for analysis of unconventional emergency management shall be scenario concepts, factors and structure, scenario construction and evolution.This dissertation follows the rescuing efforts of Dongfang Turbine Co. Ltd.(DTC) in “5.12” great earthquake, focusing on the scenario analysis of unconventional emergencies and unfolding the arguments from the following aspects:Firstly, by summarizing existing related theories such as scenario concept, scenario coping theory, scenario rebuild and evolution theory, as well as unconventional emergencies management in and out of China, this dissertation carried out research upon scenario rebuild and evolution facing life-rescuing of unconventional emergencies.Next, this dissertation makes extensive and in-depth exploration and construction of connection between scenarios and emergencies, connection amongst scenario layers, factors and structure as well as how to construct scenarios, especially the construction of the scenario section and earthquake life-rescuing section, so as to vertically and horizontally analyze the evolution of earthquake life-rescuing scenario sections, and try to utilize cooperative game and evolutionary game to vertically and horizontally analyze scenario sections, thereafter formulating the theoretical foundation of the paper.Furthermore, by applying the constructed theoretical framework, the concrete case of 512 DTC earthquake life-rescuing scenario, and via corporate research, interviews and questionnaires, the paper established the corporate physical information base, staff information base and the questionnaire statistics base, whereby formulating sections of the 512 great earthquake life-rescuing scenarios under escaping individual, self-saving of the masses, corporate bailout and public assistance.Lastly, this dissertation makes research and analysis into each life-rescuing scenario section evolution of the 512 DTC great earthquake in the hope of throwing some light on the issue from a psychological perspective, and the cross-sectional and longitudinal study of the rescuing scenario section will reveal the value and significance of the transition from the hazard-affected body to hazard-fighting body and its organizational hierarchy correlation.