Risk Factors' Analysis Of Gas Hydrates Exploitation In South China Sea

Gas Hydrate is an ideal energy mineral with many advantages, such as high fuel value, low pollution, and it is convenient to use. On the Earth, Gas Hydrates are the biggest new sources of energy which have not been exploited. Many countries including Russia, the United States, Japan and Germany are all devoting themselves on the study of Gas Hydrates Exploitation. Some of the countries have already tried to do exploitation tests in permafrost regions.Based on the results of seismic exploration and samples'laboratory test, the amount of gas hydrates in South China Sea is believed to be enormous. After the author's calculation, the sedimentary methane hydrate reservoir in South China Sea can solve the crisis of energy deficiency in China, improve the existing energy structure, and alleviate the environmental pollution owing to coal combusting. Therefore, the exploitation of gas hydrates is imperative.Gas Hydrates Exploitation in South China Sea is a System Engineering, which requires a large-scale investment and complex technologies, can be affected by natural gas market and relative policies (Energy Policy, Marine Rights Policy and Environment Protection Policy); moreover, the project has a great impact on the environment. Because of these characteristics of the Exploitation, numerous risk factors throughout the whole process of the project remain under cover. Now as yet the scientists haven't carried out the research of risk factors'systematic analysis and assessment. Hence, the risk factors'analysis of the Gas Hydrates Exploitation in South China Sea is required, which is vital to the project developers. The research object is Risk Factors of the potential project - the Gas Hydrates Exploitation Project. Scientific risk analysis'methods are used to do the systematic research of Exploitation Risk Factors。1. Scientific risk identification methods are used to identify and classify the risk factors relevant. Risk factors of Gas Hydrates Exploitation are divided into six categories: Natural Risk, Technical Risk, Economic Risk, Management Risk, Policy Risk and Environmental Risk, a further subdivision is also done.2. By means of reading a large number of literatures, collecting of geological information in South China Sea, and studying of hydrate exploitation technologies, various risk factors of the Exploitation are systematically analyzed in detail. The innovation points lie in:i. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method is used to achieve extraction technology selection. According to the fuzzy evaluation to the extraction technology risk factors, the optimal extraction technology at the present stage is Depressurization.ii. Causal method is adopted to analyze the Organization and Human Resource Risk, the root causes leading to the risk is found out and analyzed.iii. Summarize the concept of Project Decision Making Risk, and subdivide it into three categories: Strategy Risk, Survey and Forecast Risk, and Project Planning Risk.iv. Going into the abrupt climate change events in geological history, the Gas Hydrate Exploitation in South China Sea is insufficient to trigger the abrupt climate change, but the global warming due to the release of methane into the atmosphere is possible.3. The relationships among the risk factors are indicated; the risk factors are divided into Internal Unsystematic Risk and External System Risk; the"Uncertainty Risk Factors"is finding out, which represents the risks factors which are weak-learning.4. Analytic Hierarchy Process is carried out to evaluate the Exploitation Risk Factors, which is proved to be effective. The risk factors are divided into three ranks."Risk Pyramid"is set up, which can help to establish risk response measures.5. On the basis of the results of risk factors analysis and comprehensive evaluation, the corresponding risk response strategies are proposed from a macroscopic view, which have a certain guiding role to the project developer.In general, there are still some problems existing under the research of gas hydrate exploitation in South China Sea, the conditions for large-scale commercial exploitation are not achieved temporarily. Therefore, scientific research should be strengthened, the relevant technologies need to be improved, the exploration in South China Sea and gas hydrates laboratory tests are needed, and some small-scale exploitation tests can be conducted. With the changing of risk factors, the results of risk comprehensive evaluation required to be modified constantly. The exploitation risk should be decreased into an acceptable rang, putting the exploitation project into practice as soon as possible.