| With the development of world economic and international trade, the quantity of shipping has been increasing all over the world. Thus international shipping market is pushed to develop rapidly. According to the statistics, about 90 percent of the amount of cargo transportation is carried through ocean shipping in the world trade. So ocean shipping plays a great role in the world economic. The supply and demand condition of the international shipping market, especially ocean freight, is the focus which concerned people pay attention to. Freight index, as the rain glass of shipping market, response the fluctuant trend of ocean freight, dispose the supply and demand condition of shipping market and related market. Therefore, the study about technological analysis of freight index has important theoretic and realistic significance.This thesis mainly research on the creation, technological analysis, correlation analysis and database realization of freight index. It includes five parts as following.The first part is about the creation of shipping freight index. It makes an example of container freight index and studies the creation of container freight index based on port and shipping EDI information which includes a lot of information. This part mainly researches on how to create freight index from EDI.The second part is about the technological analysis of shipping freight index. Firstly, the writer builds up the indicator system of technological analysis. Then demonstrates the application principle of technological indicators. Finally, technologically analyse the real freight index with database system.The third part makes the correlation analysis on shipping freight index. It makes the Baltic dry bulk freight index as research objective. Theoretically, the fluctuations of freight index have something to do with fleet indicator. This part discusses the correlation extent between freight index and fleet indicator.The fourth part researches on the forecasting model of shipping freightindex. Firstly, the writer makes the analysis of tendency and seasonality by using statistics tools. Then removes the influence of tendency and seasonality and makes some data treatment in order to get a stable time series. Finally, build up ARM A forecasting model by using Eviews analytical tools.The fifth part researches on the technological realization of application platform about creation and technological analysis of shipping freight index. This part makes container freight index as example and studies on how to realize the application platform by using database system.Li Zhenghong(Transportation Management) Directed by Professor Shi Xin... |
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