The Analysis Of Freight's Fluctuation Of International Dry-cargo And The Research Of Management Strategy

International dry-bulk shipping market is an important part of international shipping market, but the structure of international dry-bulk shipping market makes it different from other shipping markets in it's full competitiveness. Under the guidance of value principle, the price of the products in international dry-bulk shipping is still determined by the value of the service products in shipping. The market character of full competitiveness completely embodies various factors' effects on the shipping price level of international dry-bulk shipping market, which makes the market's price level fluctuate fiercely round the value center. The historic data of the Baltic Freight Index standing for the level of international dry-bulk shipping price takes on the feature of long-term rise, cyclical punctuation and casual fluctuation.By means of making an analysis of the data structure of the historic data of Baltic Freight Index, a self-developing-and-changing law of international dry-bulk shipping price is reached. Under the direction of value principle, the price of international dry-bulk shipping tends to keep on a long-term increase is characterized by Growth Curve. Under the influence of the factor related to economy such as world trade, the price of international dry-bulk shipping fluctuates with a cycling period of six years. Under the influence of seasonal factors such as the vessel supplying volume in the market, the price of international dry-bulk fluctuates seasonally with a period of two years. In addition, rational mathematical equation is used to describe the above-side changing law. The adding of the three tendencies wholly grasps the fluctuating law of Baltic Freight Index.After removing the long-term tendency, cyclical fluctuating and seasonal fluctuating one by one from Baltic Freight Index, a null means stationary series is reached which matched ARMA model. The staked model made up of the ARMA model set up from this series and all the equations of each removed element very precisely modulated Baltic Freight Index, and a short-term prediction with tiny error has been made.The grasp of the whole tendency and short-term precise prediction guarantee the analyzed result of international dry-bulk shipping price to be of certain guidance in practice.