Freight Demand Based On The Scenario Analysis Of China's "eleventh Five-year" Period Analysis

According to the basic principle of the generation of goods freight,the paper analyzes the relation between the generation of goods freight and the production of the industry section, Joining to the study of the chains among the economic sections , and the influencing factors and mechanism to goods freight, the scene analysis theory model of goods freight need gained. The paper adopts probability theory and Delphi method to judge and imitate the possible probability of the uncertain events, combines the mutually influence relation of every factor to imitate the possible probability that takes place in actual circumstance, then studies the possible probability of every scene influenced by uncertain factors. Through the setup of macroscopic environment and industry section factor during "eleventh-five" period, five uncertain events are gained. The paper adopts the above scene method to get the scene probability of goods freight development and proceds the preface.analyzing the goods freight need under the three kinds of scene with higher probability, joinning to the possible probability and the computed results of goods freight need about every kind of scene, the synthesis goods freight need during "eleventh-five" period are got. Finally, the paper precedes the sensitivity analysis about the main indetermination factors.