.2020 Years Of Hospital Beds In The Allocation Of Resources To Predict And Influence Factors Research

Since reform-and-opening-up started, people's demands in health services have largely increased, while our society, economy, and medical technology were developing rapidly. But, because of its inherent scarcity to the health resources, it got difficulty to meet the sustained growth of health services demands, and the contradiction between health resources and health services demand increasingly intensified. The question of "too hard and too expensive to see a doctor " was attach importance by the government gradually.As an important part of the health resources, hospital beds are not only the basic foundation of available resources to provide medical and health services, but also the footstone of perfecting the area health plans. The number of beds resources directly measures a country or region's economic level, and relate to the local medical services and the health of the residents. Hence, scientific and reasonable planning to beds resources seems extremely important.Firstly, this article describes hospital beds resources' allocation and the efficiency of their utilization; secondly, clarifies diversities of hospital beds allocation among regions, resources, levels and professions; then, analyzes the problems of total amount, structure and efficiency, and integrates hospital services demands in different regions;finally, predicts forward totals of beds resource with numerous methods, and discusses beds resource's intending development and major influencing factors, with combination of domestic and international beds' allocation policies and experiences.Objective1. To analyze present situation of hospital beds resources' allocation and the efficiency of their utilization;2. To analyze problems on total amount, structure and efficiency of hospital beds resources;3. To predict the development of hospital beds with quantitative models;4. To discusses beds resources' intending development and major influencing factors based on prediction and analysis.Results1. The thirty years' overall trend of hospital beds resources from 1980 to 2010 is rising, and the average annual growth rate of 30 years is 3.53% while the last ten years'growth rate is 5.15%. But there is a huge disparity between our country to developed and medium developed countries on beds resources.2. There has been a big disparity between the public and private, as the public hospitals have dominant beds resources overall. An excessive focus evidently existed among levels, as beds resources were too much concentrating in the city hospital than countries. The hospital beds seems to be much different from east district to central and west districts, the east has been much more numerous. Besides, survival conditions were quite different among diverse kinds of hospitals, while a large number of hospital beds resources have been focused on general hospitals.3. The efficiency of hospital beds resources'utilization comes to be more and more well, while the phenomenon of excessive and insufficiency still exists. For one hand, the utilization of hospital beds generally tends to be better from 1980 to 2010, and since 2000 the levels of utilization has been over the middle; For another hand, it is significant disparity for the efficiency of hospital beds resources'utilization among different levels, tertiary hospital more than 100%, primary hospitals only 56%.4. After prediction with estimation methods, it is found that the hospital beds per 10 000 population will be between 39.50 and 60 in 2020, and the number of hospital beds will be between 5.5959 and 8.5331million; By using grey-model method, the number of hospital beds per 10 000 population will be 39.81, the hospital beds 5.6515 million.5. By using the methods of consulting experts, reading literature and using stepwise regression, we analysis the factors which affect the beds resources are the Economic Situation, Population Structure, Health Expense Pursue, Public Health Situation and the Beds Utilization situation. We found that the descending sequence of these factors which is statistical is Capita Expense, the Ratio of Aging Population, Utilization Rate of Beds and the Patients' Average hospital stay.