| ObjectivesBased on the birth population changes during the new fertility policy, we estimated the demand and gap of the obstetric beds and the human resources (obstetrician, pediatrician and the maternal and child health care staff included), and aimed to put forward to relevant suggestions of resource allocation in 2016-2020 combining with the current situation.ContentsFirstly, analyze the total birth population trends over time (2016-2020) in different regions of the country and the provinces on the influences of the new fertility policy. Secondly, summarize the total number, distribution and composition of the the obstetric beds and the human resources (obstetrician, pediatrician and the maternal and child health care staff included) during the recent 10 years and analyze the main problems of the resources allocation. Thirdly, calculate the demand and gap of resources in different regions of the country and the provinces. Fourthly, put forward to suggestions on the allocation of the resources during 2016-2020.MethodsWe predicted the birth population during 2016-2020 using the SPSS 18.0 statistical software to do regression analysis and mainly based on the population estimating method proposed by the Population Research Institute of Peking university in 2014. Obstetric beds, pediatricians and maternal and child health care staff were measured by the methods of health service demands. The number of obstetrician was measured according to that every 10 obstetric beds needs 6 obstetricians. This study used the literature research method to collect the information about the influences of the new fertility policy, basic method and theory of the resources allocation, related index and so on. Besides, experts’ advice about the research scheme as well as the scientific, conduct and suitability of research plan and tool were also important to this article, and then adjustment should be implemented on the basis of experts’ opinions.Results1. The birth population peak will emerge in 2018, which can be 22.8 million. China is short of 73478～99004 obstetric beds at most(the supply-demand ratio is between 0.76～0.81) during 2016-2020. In terms of regions, the central region need to configure the maximum number of maternity beds, and the second should be the eastern region. In the central region, the main problem is the insufficient number of the obstetric beds while the eastern region is mainly in shortage of high-quality resources in several areas (structural shortage).2. According to the gap of the obstetric beds to allocate the obstetricians appropriately, the result will be more meaningful if the gap data is positive and we need to allocate 44087～59402 obstetricians within the next five years. Compared with other regions, the central region requires to increase the largest number of obstetricians. The pediatrician gap is 195059～198287 and the supply-demand ratio is 0.36-0.37. For different regions, the eastern region’s, central region’s and western regions’pediatrician gaps make little difference, but based on the supply-demand ratio, the eastern region’s supply-demand ratio is relatively large, while the central region’s and western region’s supply-demand ratios are close. Compared to the number of the existing maternal and child health care staff is 51883, the supply-demand ratio is 0.44-0.47 and the largest gap is 62576～65185 that can’t meet the demand.ConclusionsCompared with previous studies, the result of this study shows that the amount of obstetric beds resources allocation is deficient and can’t meet people’s demand under the new policy. According to the gap, the central region’s gap is higher than the eastern while the western region’s gap is the least. According to the supply-demand ratio, the eastern region’s ratio is bigger than the western while the lowest ratio is in central region. The maternal and child health human resources are also insufficient, especially for the serious shortage of the pediatricians and unbalanced distribution, and the central and the western regions’ supply-demand ratio are less than the eastern.RecommendationsFirstly, configure the obstetrics beds and maternal and child health human resources rationally in order to meet the service demands. In order to cope with the peak of births, we require to configurate 73478～99004 obstetrics beds,44087～59402 obstetricians, 195059～198287 pediatricians and 62576～65185 maternal and child health care staff in 2016-2020. The allocation of maternal and child health human resources and obstetrics beds should be tilted to the city area, especially for the central region and part of the eastern regions where is relatively in short of resources. At the same time, we need to consider the floating population factors in Beijing, Shanghai and other regions, in order to configurate rationally according to the actual situation.Secondly, improve the quality of maternal and child health human resources and enhance obstetrics beds of the primary medical institutions. We should improve the allocation of medical staff and equipment, and strengthen maternal and child health manpower training. Thirdly, adjust the resources allocation structure and improve the efficiency of resource utilization. Besides, try our best to improve the mechanism of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, promote the orderly treatment, encourage nearby check, and use medical resources rationally for alleviating the pressure of the big cities. |
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