Disaster Economic Management-oriented Decision-making Power Model

With the development of society, economics, politics and culture, disaster prevention becomes the important protection of social stability and economic sustainable development. Besides, as the risk of natural disasters and man-made disasters is increasing, the loss and influence is expanding. So disaster prevention is more and more important, and disaster economics has great significance for socialist modernization and construction.With the disaster economics theory, we make a comprehensive research of disaster economics, decision theory of resources reasonable allocation, disaster economic model and orthogonal test. Besides, we focus on disaster economic management with the methods of safety science, disaster economics, emergency management, decision theory, and system dynamics. In this paper, we come to some conclusions.1) Following the analysis of disaster economics theory and resources economical system, study complex relationship along lots of leading factor in disaster economical system. This research is beneficial to decision makers how to deal with disaster and resources economical management.2) Disaster economical management model is consistent with the ideology of less cost for less loss. First of all, we should do a preliminary study to understand the mechanism of disaster economical management, in order to realize the optimization of disaster economical allocation of resources. Then we focus on analysis system of disaster economical resource management to figure out how to make an effective allocation of resource, with minimal input to achieve maximum output in line with demand, to get the best efficiency and effectiveness. Finally, we make decision-making theoretical analysis with the most optimal allocation of resource, in order to study how to get dynamic data analysis and provide effective decision-making basis in an efficient, intuitive and flexible way.3) In conclusion, we discuss the feedback relationship between the overall and partial of the system.As viewed from a macro enterprise emergent system, it probed into the feedback mechanisms between the whole and local in some enterprise and constructed causality chart of emergent system to analyze the logic of the system architecture, and setting up dynamic simulation model with SD equations.4) Following orthogonal test method for quantitative dynamic analysis, the initial tests are mainly operated as semi-qualitative and semi-quantitative, then simulated experiment and calculation are conducted by the 11 factors of the system. And identify 7 key factors from the initial experiment. Make a three-level orthogonal test with simulated and targeted intensely to analysis the effects of 7 key factors in emergency resource allocation. The result would provide some references as suggestions for decision makers to work out the most optimal resource location in emergency management.