Research On Reservoir Management System Decision Based On Uncertain Optimization Theory

Advanced reservoir management is a newly developed reservoir management pattern in 1990's. At present it has become the basic pattern of effectively developing oil & gas fields in domestic and foreign petroleum company, and a hot branch of oil & gas field development domain. Reservoir management is system engineering, and system decision is core. Uncertainty is an important characteristic of system decision, so applying uncertain optimization theory to research system decision has important theory and reality-guiding sense. This paper analyzes reservoir management from the system viewpoint, proposes the concept and characteristic of reservoir management system, establishes system operation mechanism, specifies the content of system decision which includes the allocation of production and cost, measure programming, and measure selecting of single well, and gives the characteristic of system decision such as uncertainty, multi-objective, and group electing. It summarizes the uncertain programming theory including stochastic programming, fuzzy programming and interval programming and intelligent optimization algorithms including genetic algorithm and artificial neural network, especially proves the uniformity of all kinds of interval number sequential relation and the containing & contained relation of all kinds of interval linear programming transformation, and presents the complete and unified parameter linear programming transformation form. Based on the allocation procedure of output and cost, it uses the production using regression, gray theory and neural network to predict production and uses regression and gray theory to predict cost, gives their interval number description form, constructs the interval programming models of allocating production and cost which include output maximization, cost minimization, profit maximization and net present value (NPV) maximization, at the same time gives their parameter programming transformation form, parameter meaning of model and the concrete solution steps. Based on the procedure of measure programming, it applies the random statistics and fuzzy statistic to descript the effect of measure, constructs the stochastic programming models and fuzzy programming models, which include the expect value model, chance-constrained programming, chance-constrained goal programming, and dependent-chance programming, and presents the hybrid intelligent algorithm including uncertain simulation, neural network, and genetic algorithm. Based on the measure selecting of single well, it establishes the evaluation index system according to the construction principle, which includes eight indexes that reflect the technical effect and economical effect of measure, put forwards a selection method, which entrusts weights through group AHP, uses interval number multiple attribute decision making to sort the measures, and applies Borda method to rank the measures finally. Examples testify the feasibility and scientific of applying uncertain optimization theory to reservoir management system decision.