| It has a close relationship between rapid urbanizad development, rapid expanding population, resources using, economical growth and environment quality changing. The rapid population growth and rising urbanization process correspondingly lead to the problem of the resources exploiting, using and ecological environment. Studying on the coordinated development condition of the population, the resources, the environment, the economy (is called PREE) four systems in order to realize the wholely, coordinating, orderly development of society, economy, population and environment. This paper selects the period from 1990 to 2007 to study. First of all, analyse the present population urbanization of Guanzhong and contrast to the southern and northern part of Shaanxi province, besides, we take Xianyang city as a example to analyse the relationship between urbanization, economy, resources and environment. Secondly, On the basis of research ing from home and abroad on sustainable development index system and harmonic development index system, according to comprehensive, maneuverable and dynamic principle an index system suitable for evaluating coordination development of Guanzhong destrict is brought forward viewing practical population, resource, environment and economy condition here. Using SPSS software, adopt Z-score method to standardize the original data, allocate weight objectively for the indexes with the principal component analysis (PCA) method, by virtue of comprehensive analysis method calculate and analyze the comprehensive development level of each subsystem in Guanzhong district. We use the crosswise comparison to allocate weight subjectively for each subsystem to calculate the comprehensive development level of the PREE system. Next, we evaluate the degree and trend of the coordination of the population, resources, environment and economy by building the static and dynamic coordinating development model. On the basis of wholely evaluating Guanzhong PREE coordination development degree, contrastively analyse five destricts of Guanzhong and the sourthern and northern of Shaanxi province. Finally, we put forward to the coordinated development degree strategic measure aiming to quantitative analysis result. Main conclusions are as follows:1. The urbanization level analysisFrom 1990 to 2007, the urbanization level of Tongchuan is in the first place all along, and it develops slowly. The urbanization level of Xi' an is second to Tongchuan. Baoji and Xianyang respectively in the third and forth place, and they has the same development trend, showing speeding rapid situation. The rate of urbanization development in Weinan city is obviously more rapid than Xianyang, Baoji, Tongchuan and Xi' an. It has a obvious region difference of urbanization between citys in Guanzhong district, the urbanization level of Baoji, Xianyang and Weinan is still low and in the elementary phase, evidently less than Xi' an and Tongchuan, which is in urban rapid advance stage. We make gradient analysis of urbanization level in Shanxi province by using cluster analysis method. The result shows that it makes off three types. The first type is urbanization level in more rapid stage, which includes Xi' an, Tongchuan and Yangling. The second type is urbanization level in medium stage, which consists in Baoji, Weinan and Yanan. The third type is urbanization level in less stage, which includes Ankang, Shangluo, Hanzhong, Yulin and Xianyang.2. PREE coordination development evaluationAnalyse Guanzhong district in the whole. The general development of PREE each system in Guanzhong takes on continually increasing whole state, but in different system, the character of integrate development level changed obviously. The population integrate development level has a driving increasing state, and its rapid extent obviously higher than economy, resource and environment. The economic integrate development level has a more rapid increase, although its rapid extent less than population, obviously more than resource and environment. The resource integrate development level has a steadily increasing trend, its rapid extent less than population and economy, but slightly more than environment. The PREE integrate development level has a constantly increasing trend, but it has a obvious discrepancy in different period, experienced a changing process, rising trend in less range(1990-1992) to fluctuant rising(1992-1997)-constantly expanding(1997-2002)-high speed rising(2002-2007). Static coordinating degree in Guanzhong from 1990 to 2007 is all up to 0.5, it is basically in coordinating state between two systems of PREE. On the whole, the coordinating state in Guanzhong shows a fluctant situation before 2001, after 2001 basically go balancedly.Analyse Guanzhong internal district. The rate of population increasing in Tongchuan and Weinan is more rapid than Baoji, Xianyang and Xi' an. Economy integrate development level has a obvious discrepancy, Xi' an has a rapid rate, Baoji has a less slow than other district. The resource integrate development level has a fluctant declincing trend of Xi' an and Tongchuan, but Baoji, Xianyang and Weinan are on the contrary. Although the environment integrate development level in Xi' an, Baoji, Tongchuan, Weinan and Xianyang rise and decreace alternately, shows a fluctant increasing trend in the whole. PREE integrate development level in five districts all tale on a rising state, and the rising range differently obviously. We take 1999-2001 as interzone, it is under the integrate development level before the inter-zone, it has a constract conclusion after it. Static coordinating degree between four systems in internal Guanzhong district has more than 0.6 since 17 years , it has a better coordinating state and in coordinating development interzone. The PREE coordinating degree is not also in a coordinating development situation. Analyse distinct in internal district of Shanxi province. PREE integrate development level of each district of Shanxi province shows a rapid increasing trend in the whole, and changing trend differently obviously. Before 1999-2001, it is under the integrate development level, it has a constract conclusion after it. The integrate development level in each district changed obviously, from "Xi'an>Baoji>Yanan>Tongchuan>Shangluo>Yulin>Ankang>Weinan>Xianyang>Hanzhong " in 1990 year to "Ankang>Yanan>ShangIuo>Weinan>Xianyang>Hanzhong>Baoji>Yulin> Tongchuan >Xi'an" in 2007. The static coordinating degree in each district is all in a fluctant state, but range distinct obiviusly. The static coordinating degree in Shangluo is in a fluctant decreasing state. The static coordinating degree in Hanzhong is in a slowly fluctant state, and fluctant range is very low, fluctantly between 0.75 and 0.98. The static coordinating degree in Ankang is in a coordinating development state, it shows extremely low value in 2007(0.579), but other value fluctantly between 0.75 and 0.98. The static coordinating degree in Yanan has a more fluctant range, rising and decreasing altertively; the coordinating development state is very not steadily. The chang range of static coordinating degree in Yulin is less than Yanan, and extreme low value is less than Yanan. Before 1998, PREE dynamic coordinating degree has a quite greater change range, speedly rising and decreasing altertively, and in a quite not steady state. After 1998, dynamic coordinating degree in each district in a steady state, especially in Tongchuan city, it is approximately parallel. It makes out PREE coordinating development status in each city of Shanxi province is not all in coordinating development.3. We analyse and put forward to development strategic measure wholely The coordinating degree in each subsystem of the coordination development system increases by the increasing system number. The coordination degree in two subsystems is inferior to the degree of three subsystems, and the coordination degree in three subsystems is inferior to the four. The coordinating degree is less between environment subsystem and other subsystem. Environment has a dominant position of population, resource and economy development, it has influence the coordinating development of other system. It also account for to a certain degree economic development not only consume plenty rescource, but also destroy the environment around it.According to measuring and analysing the PREE coordinating development in Guanzhong district and contrastly analysing region difference, we put forward to development strategic measure which adapt to Guanzhong even to Shanxi. At the present time, we should take transform economy increased pattern and industry structure as a guide idea, take urbanization as important approach to improve people living, in order to accelerate economy in Guanzhong reach a new level, promote per GDP possess in a big extent, gradully reduce the gap between real population and moderate population, and finally realize the coordinating development between population and societyeconomy, rescource and environment. |
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