The Safety Of China's Mineral Resources And Demand For Minerals Prediction

Mineral resources are the important part of natural resources, the important guarantee for the human society survival and development and the important material basis for national economic and social development. However, China's per capita of some major minerals is only 50% to 60% of the world's per capita consumption because of the large population. Mineral resources have great pressure due to unreasonable utilization, the population and the economic development. China has the greater demand for mineral resources under the stage of industrial rapid development at present. Strong demand in mineral resources and a shortage of resources situation is not optimistic. Especially the contradiction between supply and demand of mineral related to the national economy can not be improvedand maybe aggravated in the short term. The dissertation forecasts demand for the major minerals in the next few decades on the basis of large document about mineral resources security and safeguards and puts forward some measures through the analysis, forecast fuzzy security evaluation of China's mineral resources. The main points of dissertation are as follows:(1) The dissertation analyses the current status and development situation of China's mineral resources and the exploitation problems of mineral resources after searching a large number of domestic and foreign documents about mineral resources security.(2) The dissertation explains the essentiality of mineral resources in the process of Economic development form the basic theory of mineral resources. It analyses the relationship between the security of mineral resources and national security, discusses the main factors influenced the security of mineral resources and analyses some existent problems of it. And then puts forward the security model of development of mineral resources.(3) The dissertation puts forward relevant calculation formula after the analysis of the provide ability and indemnificatory of mineral resources. It analyses the provide ability of main mineral resources for China after combined related data. It puts forward the optimization model of the mineral resources exploitation aimed at the problem of mineral resources security.(4) The dissertation forecasts the demands of three kinds of main energy mineral resources by using the modified Delphi method. The dissertation analyses the correlation of the Coal, petroleum and natural gas mineral three energy mineral resources, and then it comes to conclusion that the importance of natural gas is higher than the other two energy mineral resources. It fits the consumption of our major minerals by using the Gray theoretical model. The effect of the fitting value is perfect. The dissertation forecasts the demand of main mineral resources in the next two decades by using the Gray theoretical model. The result shows that our country has great demand for the main mineral resources. The mineral resources may be the obstacle of restriction the economic development if we can't take the appropriate measures to solve it.(5) The dissertation analyses the factors which influence the mineral resources safety of our country and sets up the mineral resources safe index sign system. It makes sure the weight of index factors by using analytical hierarchy process, and then tests the coherence of the estimation result. It evaluates synthetically the safety situation of the mineral resources by using the fuzzy math. Finally, the dissertation puts forward some feasible suggestions to guarantee the safety of mineral resources according to the results.