Western Liaoning Ecologically Fragile Areas Water Resources Security

Water as one kind of natural resources is an important composition of the environment, and an indispensable substance for maintaining the existence and development of the human and all other living system. The world's population has increased to two times and the water-consuming to five times in the twentieth century, and this has influenced the environment greatly. The world's water resources security is being faced an unprecedented crisis and it is increasingly becoming a focus of the world. Large variation, small quantity and severe pollution of water resources of western Liaoning province have already become one of the "bottle-neck" factors that restrict the development of ecology, economy and society of this area, and this situation will last for years. To solve this problem, it is necessary to evaluate the water resources security of the studied area, and seek for a practicable solution. A heated and difficult problem in the study of the water resources security is how to measure and evaluate it. In this thesis, sixteen evaluation indexes are selected, six aspects, such as life security, provisions security, ecology security, economy security, environment security, and society security, being taken into consideration, and the evaluation index system and evaluation criterion of water resources security of the ecological fragile area of western Liaoning province are constructed. The subjective weight, objective weigh, and synthetic weight are determined by analytic hierarchy process and decision analytical method. By Fuzzy Patten Recognition method, we evaluated the water resources security of the four representative cities of western Liaoning province, i.e. Huludao, Jinzhou, Fuxin and Chaoyang. And then by analysis of the evaluation results the water resources security conditions of this area are obtained. Through the simulation of the four water-saving schemes, such as Business As Usual Scenario (BAU), The Technology and Economic Scenario (TEC), Institutional Value and Life Style Changes Scenario (IVL), and Towards Sustainable Development Scenario (TSD), to seek for optimal scheme. By analysis, conclution was showed that if TSD is adopted in time, it is possible that the water resources crisis of western Liaoning province will be relieved.