Weapons And Equipment Project Risk Factor Unascertained Fuzzy Evaluation Method

This thesis studies on the assessment method for project risk, and mainly works around the uncertainties of assessment result aroused by the unascertained information in the risk assessment process. The main content includes six aspects, these are the common methods and theory of risk assessment, five categories of uncertainty and its mathematics description, the theory of unascertained mathematics, the method to quantify unascertained information and fuzzy information in risk assessment, method to estimate the risk factors' weights, constructure of risk factor system. The main achievements of this thesis are as follows:(1) Studies the existed literatures home and abroad widely on risk assessment , the intension and extension about the five categories of uncertainty ( randomicity, fuzzy characteristic, gray characteristic, unascertained characteristic, universal gray characteristic). Indicates that the unascertained characteristic is a new uncertainty in the risk assessment process.(2) New concepts such as "unascertained characteristic", "unascertained information" are introduced into the risk assessment for the first time, indicating that the unascertained characteristic caused by subjective uncertainty influences the veracity of risk assessment. The experts' opinion is unascertained information, thus the result of risk assessment should include the effect of this uncertainty. Based on the theory above, unascertained and fuzzy evaluation method for the risk factor, a new evaluation method for risk factor using unascertained mathematics to quantify unascertained information, is presented.(3) Using the method given in this thesis, the risk of an armament project is assessed, and the validity, practicability and maneuverability of this method are verified at the mean time.