Bay Coastal Zone Land Use / Cover Change And Shandong Province Coastal Land Use Change Dynamics Simulations

Since Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) of Coastal Zone is significant to a range of themes and issues central to the study of global environmental change and ecosystem, it has been paid extensively attention. The coastal line of Shandong province is totally 2531 km, and research on Land Use and Land Cover Change of Coastal Zone in Shandong province is further importance in practice.Remote images are main sources in the study. In the paper, firstly the images were preprocessed, such as atmospheric correction used dark object subtraction (DOS), and remote classification system of LUCC of the coastal zone was built according to the survey of national costal zone, study areas etc; Then man-machine interactive was to classify the Landsat TM/ETM images, and decision tree classifiers were used in computer processing, after that land use data of coastal zone around Jiaozhou Bay were obtained in 1989,2000 and 2006; Thirdly, through spatial analysis in software Arcgis, land use change was detected via land use change transfer matrices.In the paper, LUCC of coastal zone around Shandong province was simulated on the framework of the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional modeling (CLUE-S). Spatial auto-correlation index, local Moran's index was introduced to the Auto-logistic model, and the reasonableness of the modified regression was carefully verified; then the modified auto-logistic model was set as the statistical model of CLUE-S, and LUCC of coastal zone around Shandong province was simulated. The results showed that after introducing spatial auto-correlation index, the accuracy of simulation was improved.