Based On 3s Land Cover Change And Land Use Forecasting Study

In recent years, as the Socio-economic and urbanization speeding up in China, population continue to expand which cause demand for land increasing rapidly, it is critical to maintain sustainable development of land use and reasonable urban development planning. And with the rapid development of technology in"3S", regional Land Use and Land cover change(LUCC) has become one of hot spots for research.The apply of RS, GIS and GPS is a necessary part of research for LUCC.The paper based on RS, GIS and GPS in research area to have spatial comparative analysis on land use objects, find the process of dynamic change of LUCC changes to establish the transfer matrix,and establish the land use changing model to predict future trends in land use.The paper has done the following research:(1) set out the importance of land use/land cover changes for research and select the《national land classification》(the application of the transition period) of ClassⅡas the standard classification, and transform the corresponding relation in《land use classification》(1984) and《land use classification》used in the second land survey.(2) choose the city AnNing for the research area, extract land～use changing information from 2003 to 2006, and get 2003～2006 different transfer matrixs in land～use changing.(3) according to two kinds of data with the use of Markov model and the optimal method of linear programming to get predictive value in 2009, it is close to thetrue value, so both kind of modeling are reliable model, finally amend the model and carry out land use trend in 2012,2015,2018 and 2021 in the future.(4) combined with the forecast results of research area and the status quo of land use, made the sustainable development proposal of land use.