Of Climate Change On Land Use / Cover Was The Potential Impact

In recent years,the global climate has had the remarkable change,it not only affects human survival and development of the foundation,but also threatens the sustainable development of human society.Global climate change research has become a hot topic in international science.Climate change,population growth and socio-economic development conditions,the landscape pattern in the artificial plaque dynamic changes in the climate change law,simulated future Rengong patch size and spatial distribution of natural vegetation in combination - the analysis of climate models, can be designed climate change refuge,ecological corridor,protect hot spot areas and develop appropriate protection measures and other measures to provide a scientific basis,but also for other natural ecosystems and socio-economic system, the combination of climate change research,provide research ideas and research base.Not only of theoretical significance, but also practical significance.Through this study,obtained the following conclusions: First,the study area from north to south next the temperature was increased and decreased precipitation from north to south distribution pattern.Through comparative analysis,the area north of warming was a large,south of warming is small,and the largest increase in precipitation north and south,northwest end of the precipitation increase in the minimum distribution. Second,the distribution of vegetation and temperature,precipitation,elevation,slope and aspect is the mutual restraint between the driving factors,influence each other. In the study area,artificial cultivation of vegetation in an altitude of1400-2100m, the temperature is 24-26℃,rainfall of 1220-1241mm,180°-225°the southern slope of the direction of a gradient of 1°-2°and dryness index for the 1.04-1.46 range to achieve maximum coverage,that is the driving factor of these specific range,more suitable for the development of cultivated vegetation,and people are more in the range of production activities.Third,to the appropriateness of the region in 2050 although the degree of change are different,but the suitability of agricultural land area and vulnerable to disturbance and did not change much,still located in the vicinity of low-lying river valleys and southern areas.But the original high score region northward movement,that the suitability of agricultural land area has migrated to the valley trend.Fourth,in terms of food self-sufficiency,predicted the study area in 2050 increased 65.91 percent of cultivated land area of need.In this thesis,the future development of three types of land use/cover scenarios will benefit from their programs to address future demand for food in people,for the decision makers of three practical ideas.