Regionalization Of Economic Risk On Storm Surge Disaster In China

China is a typical maritime country.Due to special geographical and historical reasons,coastal areas have the highest density of population and property,which are the most developed economic regions in china. Marine disasters have become one of the nature disasters which have the greatest impact on the future socio-economic development of coastal areas. And the storm surge disaster is the most frequently occuring marine disaster,which led the most serious economic loss.Based on the sort of knowledge about storm surge disaster,this thesis defines the definition of economic risk on storm surge disaster and the principles for regionalization on storm surge disaster and analyses the current situation of storm surge disaster in our country.Then this thesis establishes an index system for economic risk zoning on storm surge disasters based on the analysis of the factor of the economic risk on storm surge.Through entropy method,gray relational analysis,principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process combined with kendall consistency test,this thesis builds model of "four-dimensional in one" joint decision-making to measure the economic risk on storm surge disaster.Using the hierarchical clustering method,this thesis does the regionalization of economic risk on storm surge disaster in China's coastal areas to study the differences of possible economic loss caused by the same storm surge disaster in different areas.In the end,Qindao is selected as a typical case to do the empirical analysis. The main thesis is as follows.Through the analysis of impact factor of the economic risk on storm surge disaster,which are vulnerability, disaster risk and disaster prevention and reduction capacity, this thesis establishes an index system for the regionalization of economic risk on storm surge disaster with "objective tree"method.The index system contains three one-grade indexes and twenty-two two-grade indexes.Then it builds a model of "four-dimensional in one" joint decision-making to measure the economic risk on storm surge disaster using three objective methods and one subjective method combined with kendall consistency test in a creative way. In this way,the evaluation results to be ensured the accuracy and consistency.Based on the hierarchical clustering method,the division of China's eleven coastal provinces and municipalities (not including HongKong,Macao and Taiwan)has been made. The results divide China's coastal areas into four categories, namely, high economic risk areas:Fujian Province,Guangdong Province and Zhejiang Province;higher economic risk zones:Shanghai;middle risk areas:,Hainan Province,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Shandong Province and Liaoning Province;low risk areas:Tianjin,Jiangsu Province and Hebei Province. The results provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation to government managers, particularly in areas that frequently subjected to storm surge disaster.Based on the historical review of storm surge disaster in Qingdao coastal areas and the analysis of characteristics of storm surge disaster,this thesis divides the seven districts and five county-level citys into four categories from the perspective of the region's economic vulnerability.They are high economic risk areas(Shinan District, Shibei District, Huangdao District),higher economic risk areas(Laoshan District, Chengyang District, Jimo, Jiaonan),middle risk areas(Sifang District, Licang District, Jiaozhou) and low risk areas(Laixi and Pingdu). Analysis of the risk profile and characteristics of the storm surge disaster for various regions, lay the groundwork for the development of storm surge disaster early warning.And the results provide a scientific basis for regional marine planning.Finally, this thesis points out the shortcomings of the study, and put forward the question to be further studied and direction.