Risk Management Of Storm Surge Disaster

As a main coastal country, economic losses brought by disastrous marineactivities such as storm surge are becoming more and more serious in China. Thedisaster risk management system, with the features of fiscal capital allocation andplanning management style, constrained the efficiency of resource allocation andcompensating ability of frequent marine disasters.This paper aimed to explore the application of insurance technology in themanagement of storm surg risks in order to build a disaster risk scattered mechanismbased on insurance market with appropriate theories and methods, and systematiclystudied the insurability of storm surge risks and the premium rate against all risks aswell as the risk diversification strategy.Beginning from the contrast of risk features of the storm surge and catastrophe,the thesis analyzed the insurablility of the storm surge and verified the feasibility ofstorm surge insurance against all risks.Using the kernel density estimation of thenon-parameter method, the paper fitted the distribution of the storm surge losses andobtained the expected loss mean.Then, the paper proposed a storm surge pure rate-making model and realized the rate determination, relying on the reliability theory andactuarial theory. To improve the practicality, according to the insurance rateadjustment principles, the article employed multivariate statistical methods and fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method to test the regional risk vulnerability and disasterdamage degree, then gained classification rate.On that basis, the paper discussed the risk diversification strategy of the stormsurge. First,the paper built an excess of loss reinsurance model and estimated thepremium rate of the storm surge reinsurance.Then, with the purpose to establish theoptimal reinsurance chain,it put forward several optimality criterien and analyzed therealization of the Nash equilibrium among main parties(government, insurancecompanies, individuals) in the optimal reinsurance chain by a perfect game model ofstatic mixers.Finally, based on the individual optimal model of utility theory and thesocially optimal model of Pareto optimality theory,the article proved the optimal stateof reinsurance chain mentioned above, providing theoretical proof for the storm surge disaster risk diversification mechanism.The main results and innovations of this paper lie in the following three:Firstly, the paper tested the feasibility of the implementation of storm surgedisaster insurance, expanding the view of storm surge risk management. Usingkurtosis inspection and fractile quantile model, it estated the insurability of the stormsurge, providing reference for risk diversification of marine disaster.Secondly, the paper applied insurance technogy in risk management of stormsurge, and set and corrected the rate of the storm surge disaster insurance against allrisks. It employed the kernel density model with reliability theory and actuarial theoryto acquire the pure rate. Moreover, it estimated regional disaster vulnerability and thestorm surge disaster damage degree, ensuring the rate correction being scientific andpractical.Thirdly, the paper obtained the path of reinsurance and probed into the optimalbehavior portfolio. By means of reinsurance rate-making, static game model ofreinsurance participants, individual optimal model of utility theory and the sociallyoptimal model of Pareto optimality theory, the article demonstrated riskdiversification strategy based on reinsurance chains, enhancing the long-term validityof storm surge risk management mechanism.