Research On The Impact Of Travel Time Reliability On Residents' Trip Decision-making

At present, it is a common phenomenon that the urban residents suffer from traffic jam, especially in big cities. Traffic jam has become a vital problem affect the normal function and sustainable development of the cities. And it is crucial to improve the traffic participants'travel efficiency and reliability for solving urban traffic congestion.This paper investigates the elements affect the resident travel time reliability and establishes resident travel time reliability model, then analyses the resident travel time reliabilities qualitatively and quantitatively by means of combining theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, the application of reliability theory in traffic system is discussed in the paper including connectivity reliability, travel time reliability and capacity related reliability. Secondly, two evaluation methods of the travel time reliability are explored in this paper: the statistical evaluation method and simulation evaluation method, thus two types of travel time reliability index, the categories of buffer time index and statistics index are put forward. And in this paper, the questionnaire about travel time reliability is designed for data collection of Shanghai's working population with stated preference method followed by a series of pretreatment of the collected data and analysis of the stated preference characteristics, and finally the model of urban resident travel time reliability to work is established. The paper investigates the impact of personal attributes, work attributes, and trip attributes on travel time reliability with empirical method and also investigates the impact of different travel modes, e.g. shopping trip, entertainment trip, visiting trip, catering trip on travel time reliability for urban residents.The innovation of this paper lies in the following two points: Firstly, travel buffer time is adopted as an index of the urban resident travel time reliability. The travel buffer time is designed in the questionnaire to obtain more information about it as to be the alternative of the travel time reliability model. Secondly, the Disaggregate Model is applied in the research field of travel time reliability and thus urban resident travel time reliability model is established. This paper focuses on the impact of personal attributes, work attributes, and trip attributes on travel time reliability to work and the impact of personal attributes and trip attributes on travel time reliability of different travel modes, e.g. shopping trip, entertainment trip, visiting trip, catering trip.